BMIE Market 56455

Crow Wing County, Minnesota · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	1,688 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±188 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	662 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±76 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	1,488 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	785 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$73,214 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,649 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,013 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±516 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$222,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,623 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 56455
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2010 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-50.0% DERIVED: 2006 → 2016, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 1–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2005–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.17) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	38 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	31 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 56455. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2005–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.17, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Minnesota and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 715, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 38 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	45.8	46	40%	+18.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	31.2	31	35%	+10.9
Market Momentum Score	35.3	35	25%	+8.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	1,688	42	40%	+16.6
Median household income (ACS)	73,214	52	40%	+20.8
Households (ACS)	662	42	20%	+8.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 31 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	35%	+1.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.8	43	25%	+10.8
Population (ACS)	1,688	42	20%	+8.3
Median household income (ACS)	73,214	52	20%	+10.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	-50	5	30%	+1.4
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 2 · Coffee 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 7 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Café 1 · Casual dining 1 · Dessert 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
american legion post 443	Bar		232 4th St, Ironton, MN 56455	open
Fireshack	Restaurant (service type not stated)		101 4th St	open
Happy Otter Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	21639 Iverson Rd	open
High Wheel Confectionery	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	236 4th St	open
Hudson Smokehouse Hudson House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	208 Curtis Ave	open
Ice Box and Haut Dawgs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	236 4th St	open
Ironton Town Tavern	Bar			open
MacDaddy's Donut Garage	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	221 4th St	open
Sorben Honey	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		20631 CR-12	open
Station13	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	101 4th St	open
Taconite Canteen & Event Center	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	240 Curtis Ave	open
Town Tavern	Bar		226 4th St	open
Louie's Bucket Of Bones	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	101 4th St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	—	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	2	—	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	4	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	2	1	1	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2022	5	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 56455. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.