BMIE Market 59935

Lincoln County, Montana · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,381 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±508 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,407 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,576 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,330 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$39,712 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$879 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±193 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$371,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±74,905 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	1,035.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 59935
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	6 (range 5–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.15) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	35 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	71 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 59935. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.15, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Montana and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 218, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	35.1	35	40%	+14.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.0	45	35%	+15.7
Market Momentum Score	70.6	71	25%	+17.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 35 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,381	54	40%	+21.6
Median household income (ACS)	39,712	6	40%	+2.4
Households (ACS)	1,407	55	20%	+11.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	35%	+22.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	17.8	43	25%	+10.9
Population (ACS)	3,381	54	20%	+10.8
Median household income (ACS)	39,712	6	20%	+1.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20	77	50%	+38.7
10-year restaurant growth	20	63	30%	+18.9
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Bar 11 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Casual dining 5 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Quick service 2 · Bakery 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Carleens Coffee & Country Catering	Coffee shop	Coffee	1307 E Missoula Ave	open
Champs Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	607 E MISSOULA Ave	open
Champs Chicken Champs Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	607 E Missoula Ave	open
Chicken Switch Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	139 Totem LN	open
Club	Bar		208 E Yaak Ave	open
Dirty Shame Saloon	Bar		29453 Yaak River Rd	open
Halfway House Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		19824 Bull Lake Rd	open
Home Bar	Casual dining · Bar		228 Yaak Ave	open
Hungry Hunter Saloon	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		27744 Yaak River Rd	open
Iron Creek Cafe and Cantina	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Coffee	1410 E Missoula Ave	open
Lincoln Theater Preview Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	211 E Kootenai Ave	open
Main Street Perk & Pub	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Coffee	509 E Missoula Ave	open
MK Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	9948 US Highway 2	open
Mountain High Bakery (custom home baker)	Bakery	Bakery	215 E Spokane Ave	open
Odie's Big Sky Cafe	Casual dining	American	1410 E Missoula Ave	open
Pink Bench Distilling	Winery / distillery / taproom		225 E Kootenai Ave	open
Preview Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	211 E Kootenai Ave	open
State Line House	Casual dining · Bar		US-2	open
The Silver Spur Restaurant, Bar & Casino	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		13891 US-2	open
The Windsor	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American · Burgers	616 E Missoula Ave	open
Troy VFW	Bar		216 Yaak Ave	open
Yaak River Tavern	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		29238 Yaak River Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	3	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	7	4	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	8	4	—	—	—	4	SIC1987
1997	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	9	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	9	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	9	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	4	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	8	5	3	2	—	3	NAICS1997
2003	8	4	3	1	—	4	NAICS2002
2004	8	4	3	1	—	4	NAICS2002
2005	9	5	2	3	—	4	NAICS2002
2006	8	5	3	2	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	10	5	2	3	—	5	NAICS2002
2008	10	6	3	3	—	4	NAICS2007
2009	8	4	2	2	—	4	NAICS2007
2010	11	6	3	2	1	5	NAICS2007
2011	8	3	1	1	1	5	NAICS2007
2012	10	5	2	1	2	5	NAICS2012
2013	9	5	2	2	1	4	NAICS2012
2014	9	6	4	1	1	3	NAICS2012
2015	7	4	2	1	1	3	NAICS2012
2016	10	6	4	1	1	4	NAICS2012
2017	8	4	—	—	—	4	NAICS2017
2018	9	5	3	—	—	4	NAICS2017
2019	8	5	—	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	8	5	3	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	9	6	4	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	9	6	4	—	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	9	6	3	—	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 59935. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.