BMIE Market 60021

McHenry County, Illinois · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,996 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±265 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,903 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,545 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,162 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$119,176 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,306 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,186 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±598 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$292,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,670 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	2.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 60021
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	19.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-9.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+25.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	15 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 60021. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Illinois and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,016, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	72.2	72	40%	+28.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46.0	46	35%	+16.1
Market Momentum Score	14.6	15	25%	+3.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,996	60	40%	+24.2
Median household income (ACS)	119,176	90	40%	+36.0
Households (ACS)	1,903	60	20%	+12.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	35%	+6.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	20.0	37	25%	+9.3
Population (ACS)	4,996	60	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	119,176	90	20%	+18.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 15 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-23.1	12	50%	+6.0
10-year restaurant growth	-9.1	19	30%	+5.6
20-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

Coffee 5 · American 4 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Japanese 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Sushi 2 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 5 · Quick service 4 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baskin-Robbins Dunkin'	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	916 Northwest Hwy	open
Brunch Cafe Brunch Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee	935 IL-22	open
Bruneau Restaurant	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	401.5 Northwest Highway	open
Chef Cali	Restaurant (service type not stated)		728 Northwest Hwy	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	514 Northwest Hwy	open
Dead End Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	98 Northwest Hwy	open
Dio’s Oasis	Bar		1013 S Rd	open
Dotty's Dotty's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	902 Northwest Hwy	open
El Sombrero Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	314 Lincoln Ave	open
Gazebo Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1050 Northwest Hwy	open
Grover's Bar and Grill	Bar		412 Northwest Hwy	open
Jimano's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	700 Northwest Hwy	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	908 Northwest Hwy	open
Kuwa Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	918 IL-22	open
La Pizza Via	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	914 IL Route 22	open
Lord of Beers	Casual dining · Bar		726 Northwest Hwy	open
Lucky Lucy's 7	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	412 Northwest Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	840 Northwest Hwy	open
New China Restaurant Fox River Grove Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		308 Northwest Hwy	open
Panera Bread	Café	Coffee	730 Northwest Hwy	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	800 Northwest Hwy	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	950 Rt 22	open
The 100 Lounge	Casual dining · Bar		100 Northwest Hwy	open
Tinman's Pub	Bar · Casual dining		926 IL-22	open
Uke-n-dan's, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		98 Northwest Hwy	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	800 Northwest Hwy #14	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	9	7	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	12	10	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	13	11	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	13	10	5	4	1	2	NAICS1997
1999	12	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	6	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	13	11	6	4	1	2	NAICS1997
2002	11	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	14	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	5	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	15	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	14	12	5	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	6	9	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	15	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	13	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	12	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	14	12	7	4	1	2	NAICS2012
2016	16	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	11	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	11	9	3	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 60021. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
60013	2.2 mi	30	2023
60010	4.3 mi	81	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.