BMIE Market 60097

McHenry County, Illinois · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,983 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±821 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,486 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±282 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,250 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,534 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$93,397 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,949 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,417 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$229,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,815 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 60097
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-37.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 3–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 60097. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Illinois and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,016, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.4	74	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.1	84	35%	+29.4
Market Momentum Score	75.7	76	25%	+18.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,983	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	93,397	76	40%	+30.5
Households (ACS)	4,486	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.2	94	25%	+23.6
Population (ACS)	11,983	73	20%	+14.7
Median household income (ACS)	93,397	76	20%	+15.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	20%	+2.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (13)

By cuisine

American 2 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Bar 5 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alibi Pub & Grub	Bar		4117 E Wonder Lake Rd	open
Busy Bee Busy Bee	Casual dining	American	7140 Barnard Mill Rd	open
Couzinz	Bar		5506 E Wonder Lake Rd	open
Cup of Wonder	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	7502 Hancock Dr	open
Dhalias Cinful Delights	Dessert	Dessert	9006 Shady Ln	open
East End Pizza and Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Ice cream / frozen desserts	7431 Hancock Dr	open
Grand Old Mill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	7514 Barnard Mill Rd	open
Horizontals	Bar		7620 Hancock Dr	open
Mike's Lizzard Lounge	Casual dining · Bar		5506 E Wonder Lake Rd	open
Riverside Smoke House	Restaurant (service type not stated)		7514 Barnard Mill Rd	open
Sammy's Bar and Gaming	Bar · Casual dining		5506 E Wonder Lake Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	7407 Hancock Dr	open
Dusty's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7613 Howe Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	8	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	7	4	1	2	2	NAICS1997
1999	9	7	4	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	4	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	4	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	8	7	6	—	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	8	6	6	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	6	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	5	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	5	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	5	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	5	4	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	6	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	3	3	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	5	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	4	4	—	—	4	NAICS2022
2023	9	5	4	—	—	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 60097. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
60072	3.4 mi	3	2021

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.