BMIE Market 63051

Jefferson County, Missouri · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	13,436 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,150 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,027 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±369 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	14,495 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,656 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,940 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,081 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,074 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±56 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$201,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,880 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	43.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 63051
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	9.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+18.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	59 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	44 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 63051. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Missouri and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 668, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.7	70	40%	+27.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.0	58	35%	+20.3
Market Momentum Score	43.5	44	25%	+10.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	13,436	75	40%	+30.0
Median household income (ACS)	79,940	62	40%	+24.8
Households (ACS)	5,027	74	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.7	73	25%	+18.4
Population (ACS)	13,436	75	20%	+15.0
Median household income (ACS)	79,940	62	20%	+12.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

American 6 · Coffee 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 16 · Quick service 6 · Bar 5 · Dessert 4 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Captain D's Captain D's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	35 Walters Pl	open
Cinco de mayo	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	4587 Hunter Ln	open
Company B BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	4583 Hunter Ln	open
El Mariachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	4587 Hunter Ln	open
Grind Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4561 Gravois Rd	open
Happy Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	17 Walters Pl	open
Hardee's Hardee's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4699 Gravois Rd	open
Hometown Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	14 Gravois Station Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4635 Gravois Rd	open
Jamm Inn	Bar		4653 Gravois Rd	open
Jesse's Pizza and Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	Main St	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	43 Walters Pl	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	5701 Old Highway 21	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		5701 Old Highway 21	open
Livin the Dream Ice Cream Trucks	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	3961 W 4 Ridge Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	4699 Hwy W	open
Osaka Sushi & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	38 Gravois Station Rd	open
Salty Myke's Saloon	Bar		4551 Gravois Rd	open
Santiago Apostol Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Gravois Station Rd \n	open
Shenanigan's Pub & Grill	Bar		5642 Gravois Rd	open
Silver Spoon Ice Cream & Sweets - House Springs Silver Spoon Ice Cream - Eureka	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	22 Gravois Station Road	open
Singers Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	22 Gravois Sta	open
Slingers	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4662 Gravois Rd	open
Slo Odie's	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	28 Gravois Station Rd	open
Smokey D's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4561 Gravois Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	4639 House Springs Center	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	4698 MO-W	open
The Blue Owl Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1 Ponder Executive Plz	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	13	3	8	2	—	NAICS1997
1999	14	13	3	8	2	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	13	3	7	3	—	NAICS1997
2001	14	14	2	9	3	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	12	1	10	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	1	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	11	2	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2008	12	11	3	7	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	5	7	2	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	17	7	9	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	3	7	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	4	8	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	13	4	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 63051. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
63016	4.3 mi	6	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.