BMIE Market 66030

Johnson County, Kansas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	26,328 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±301 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,052 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±346 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	20,961 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,126 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$97,822 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,626 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	31.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,314 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±126 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$313,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,729 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	46.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 66030
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+68.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+357.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	31 (range 26–37) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.20) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 66030. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.20, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Kansas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 462, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83	83	40%	+33.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72.1	72	35%	+25.2
Market Momentum Score	74.2	74	25%	+18.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	26,328	86	40%	+34.5
Median household income (ACS)	97,822	79	40%	+31.8
Households (ACS)	9,052	84	20%	+16.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	35%	+23.0
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.2	64	25%	+16.0
Population (ACS)	26,328	86	20%	+17.2
Median household income (ACS)	97,822	79	20%	+15.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	23.1	79	50%	+39.7
10-year restaurant growth	23.1	66	30%	+19.7
20-year restaurant growth	68.4	74	20%	+14.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (70)

By cuisine

American 14 · Pizza 11 · Coffee 9 · Burgers 7 · Bakery 6 · Mexican 6 · Sandwiches 6 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Asian 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Quick service 17 · Bar 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Food truck 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Casual dining 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Catering 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1870 E Santa Fe St	open
Arsya Hibachi Grill & Sushi Japanese Express	Quick service		312 W Main St	open
Ash and Anvil	Bar		204 E Park St	open
Asian Moon Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	295 N Moonlight Rd	open
Austin's Bar and Grill Austin's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	245 N Moonlight Rd	open
Blazers Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	131 N Center St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	1785 E Santa Fe St	open
Cakes By My Mom And Me, LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		222 W Park St	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	18315 S Gardner Rd	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	390 N Moonlight Rd	open
Celebrity's Cheese Steaks, Burgers and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	405 E Main St	open
Chaffee Cigar Room & Pub	Bar		16670 Four Corners Rd	open
China Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	816 E Main St	open
Crafted Candles	Dessert		24850 W 190th St	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	18970 S Gardner Rd	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	518 E Main St 518 E Main St	open
Daylight Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	828 E Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	937 Lincoln Lane	open
El Fisher Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	18345 S Gardner Rd	open
El Luchador Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	219 E Main St	open
ExBEERiment Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		925 E Lincoln Ln	open
Farmstand: 199th + Cedar Niles	Bakery	Bakery	26170 W 199th St	open
Fatbee Cafe Gardner KS	Coffee shop	Coffee	800 E Main St	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	632 E Main St.	open
Fronteras Mexican Restaurant & Cantina Fronteras Mexican Restaurant & Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	175 N Moonlight Rd	open
Gambino's Pizza Gambino's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	616 E Main St	open
Gardner, KS Whataburger	Quick service		18759 South Gardner Road	open
Goodcents Goodcents	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	796 E Main St	open
Groundhouse Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	103 S Elm St	open
Groundhouse Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	18855 S Gardner Rd	open
HTeaO - Gardner HTeaO	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	838 E Main St	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	17505 Waverly Rd	open
Hunt Brothers Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	29550 W 191St St	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	651 East Main Street	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	905 E Santa Fe St	open
La Carreta	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	949 E Lincoln Ln	open
M&T Brewery Tap Room	Bar		638 E Meadowlark Pl	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	26240 W 174th St	open
Moose's BBQ & Catering	Food truck · Catering	BBQ	213 E Main St	open
MY Play Café - GARDNER, KS	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	810 S Creekside Dr	open
Nice Ice Baby	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	127 E Main St	open
Panda Express	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1765 E Santa Fe St	open
Papa Johns Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	325 N Moonlight Rd	open
Papa Murphy's Take and Bake Pizza	Delivery-focused · Bakery	Pizza · Bakery	800 E Main St Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	open
Perkins at 2000 E. Santa Fe Gardner, KS Perkins	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2000 E. Santa Fe	open
Perkins Restaurant & Bakery Perkins American Food Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery · American	2000 E Santa Fe St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	619 E Main St Johnson	open
Planet Sub Planet Sub	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	921 E Lincoln Ln	open
Rivera's tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	840 E Main St	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	1850 E Santa Fe St	open
Sdi Of Gardner Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		626 E Main St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	626 E. Main	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	660 E Main St	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	29550 W 191 Street	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1809 E Santa Fe St	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	18731 S Gardner Rd	open
Tad's Shaved Ice	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	666 E Main St	open
Tad's Shaved Ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	324 E Main St	open
Tag Team Pizza Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		937 E Lincoln Ln	open
Texas Bbq House Mobile	Food truck		18710 S Gardner Rd	open
The Downtowner	Casual dining	American	108 S Elm St	open
The Forge	Bar		117 S Elm St	open
The Sweet Shack	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1012 E Pumpkin Ridge	open
Tokyo Hibachi, Sushi and Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	404 E Main St	open
Trails Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	American · Coffee	418 E Main St	open
Transport Brewery Gardner	Brewery / taproom · Bar		131 E Main St	open
Tumbleweeds Bar & Grill	Bar		615 E Main St	open
Walmart Deli	Specialty food shop · Bakery · Quick service	Sandwiches · Bakery	1725 E Santa Fe St	open
Whataburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	18759 South Gardner Road	open
Wheat State Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	295 N Moonlight Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	7	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	8	5	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1996	11	9	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	15	14	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	15	14	6	8	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	16	15	6	9	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	14	7	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	18	16	7	9	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	19	17	6	10	1	2	NAICS1997
2003	21	19	8	11	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	20	19	7	11	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	28	27	10	15	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	25	24	9	14	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	25	23	6	15	2	2	NAICS2002
2008	28	26	9	15	2	2	NAICS2007
2009	27	25	9	16	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	26	24	11	13	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	27	26	11	14	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	29	27	10	14	3	2	NAICS2012
2013	27	26	10	13	3	1	NAICS2012
2014	27	26	13	12	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	30	29	14	14	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	26	25	12	11	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	28	27	10	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	27	26	9	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	26	25	9	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	24	8	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	26	9	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	32	8	19	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	34	32	11	17	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 66030. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
66031	2.9 mi	1	1997

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.