BMIE Market 72923

Sebastian County, Arkansas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,956 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±104 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,133 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,735 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,094 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,157 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,487 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,128 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±159 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$140,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,129 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	16.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 72923
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	7 (range 5–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.80) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	45 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	90 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 72923. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.80, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arkansas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 342, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	44.7	45	40%	+17.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.2	66	35%	+23.2
Market Momentum Score	90.2	90	25%	+22.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,956	60	40%	+24.1
Median household income (ACS)	54,157	20	40%	+8.2
Households (ACS)	2,133	62	20%	+12.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	12.1	64	25%	+16.0
Population (ACS)	4,956	60	20%	+12.1
Median household income (ACS)	54,157	20	20%	+4.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+29.2
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · Pizza 2 · Seafood 2 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Peruvian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bar 1 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
BARLING DONUTS	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	406 E Church St	open
Blue Agave Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	203 Fort St	open
BluPoint Seafood & Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Steakhouse · American	7225 Chad Colley Blvd	open
Bob and Wanda's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	216 Fort St	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	107 Fort St	open
Created Chaos Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho	702 Fort St	open
Doods and Dames Dog Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	802 Fort St	open
El Tumi De Oro Peruvian Restaurant & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Peruvian · Latin American (other)	1709 Fort St	open
Endless Nutrition of Barling	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	706 Fort St	open
Heritage Pizza Parlour	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	7209 Chad Colley Blvd, 7209 Chad Colley Blvd	open
Las Americas Restaurant Las Americas Newspaper	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	7209 Chad Colley Blvd	open
Madre Selva Coffee	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1815 Denali Way	open
Olive Coffee Company \| Barling Branch	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	7309 Chad Colley Blvd	open
Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	406 Church St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	607 Fort Street	open
The Bobcat Den	Bakery	Bakery · Mexican · Breakfast	802 Fort St	open
Vargas Fruteria	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	7309 Chad Colley Blvd suit H	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2018	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	6	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	7	6	4	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 72923. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
72905	4.1 mi	1	2011

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.