BMIE Market 75109

Navarro County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,344 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±750 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,074 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,658 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,669 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,074 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,634 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	51.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,185 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±118 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$258,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±45,676 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	119.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75109
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+900.0% DERIVED: 2000 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.52) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	71 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75109. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.52, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.4	65	40%	+26.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.3	67	35%	+23.6
Market Momentum Score	86.2	86	25%	+21.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,344	62	40%	+24.6
Median household income (ACS)	88,074	71	40%	+28.6
Households (ACS)	2,074	61	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	35%	+30.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	18.7	41	25%	+10.2
Population (ACS)	5,344	62	20%	+12.3
Median household income (ACS)	88,074	71	20%	+14.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	25	81	50%	+40.4
10-year restaurant growth	66.7	87	30%	+26.2
20-year restaurant growth	400	98	20%	+19.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (26)

By cuisine

American 6 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Burgers 3 · Mexican 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Quick service 11 · Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Angelita Vineyard & Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		Angus TX, 254 Shady Creek Lane	open
Blanca’s Caribbean Cuisine	Food truck		5501 FM-637	open
Champs Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2050 E State Highway 31	open
Collin Street Bakery Collin Street Bakery	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee	2035 I-45	open
Collins Street Bakery	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	I45 North Exit 229	open
I45 & Hwy 287 Whataburger	Quick service		2001 S INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 45	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		2001 E Highway 31	open
Ms. Arlene's Kountry Kitchen Soul Food and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	2021 Regal Dr	open
Northshore Harbor Restuarant and Marina	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	10000 Spur 294	open
Old School BBQ and More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	Interstate 45 Frontage Rd	open
Pelican Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	9928 US-287	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2207 South I-45	open
Russell Stover Candies Inc. Russell Stover Chocolates- Abilene	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3200 US-287	open
Sabor Tejano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Hot dogs	7006 S Interstate Highway 45 W	open
Schlotzsky's	Other	Sandwiches	3101 Mountain Dr	open
Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2931 S Highway 287	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2951 Ridgeway Drive, Northeast Quadrant	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2937 South Highway 287	open
Taco Bueno Taco Bueno	Quick service	Mexican	2205 I-45	open
Taco Bueno	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2205 S. Interstate 45	open
TJ's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	2900 S US Highway 287	open
Tucker Town BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	4095 S US Highway 287	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2951 US-287	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2900 S US Highway 287	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	2001 S INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 45	open
The Harbor Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	10000 Spur 294	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	9	3	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	10	3	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75109. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.