BMIE Market 75454

Collin County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	22,990 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±652 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,969 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±359 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,699 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,012 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$138,827 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,925 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,462 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±269 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$456,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,660 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	21.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75454
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+111.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+216.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+850.0% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 19–29) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.3 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	87 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	98 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75454. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.2	87	40%	+34.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90.1	90	35%	+31.5
Market Momentum Score	98.2	98	25%	+24.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	22,990	84	40%	+33.5
Median household income (ACS)	138,827	95	40%	+37.9
Households (ACS)	6,969	79	20%	+15.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	216.7	99	35%	+34.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.3	79	25%	+19.8
Population (ACS)	22,990	84	20%	+16.8
Median household income (ACS)	138,827	95	20%	+18.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 98 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	111.1	98	50%	+61.2
10-year restaurant growth	216.7	99	30%	+37.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (64)

By cuisine

Coffee 11 · Bakery 10 · American 8 · Dessert 8 · Pizza 8 · Mexican 6 · Burgers 4 · BBQ 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Asian 2 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Indian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Quick service 15 · Bakery 11 · Café 9 · Dessert 9 · Coffee shop 8 · Bar 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Casual dining 3 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
AN Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	1606 Cooper St	open
B Squared Brownies and Bars	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	3313 Robin Trl	open
Beans & Brews Coffee House Beans & Brews Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2211 Central Expy	open
Beans and Bubbles Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	3310 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Braum's Ice Cream & Dairy Store Braums	Dessert · Casual dining	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · American	2681 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2651 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service		1300 Melissa Crossing Ct	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		1220 Melissa Crossing Ct	open
Connections Coffee, Inc.	Coffee shop	Coffee	3851 McKinney St	open
Crazy 8 Sourdough	Bakery	Bakery	3904 Charles Ct	open
Donut +	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	2435 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Doshi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	3031 Washington Dr	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		1950 McKinney Street	open
Georges Coffee @ 121	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1280 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Golden Chick Golden Chick	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2631 Sam Rayburn Hwy.	open
Guadalajara Cocina Mexicana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2212 Sam Rayburn Hwy Ste 600	open
Hawaii Five-Sno	Dessert · Quick service		Melissa TX	open
Himalayan Hub Indian Spice and MoMo House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · Asian	3031 Washington Dr #200	open
Home Sweet Sugar	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1103 Parker Dr	open
HOPE Coffee Melissa	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2907 McKinney St	open
It's Simple Sourdough	Bakery	Bakery	2302 Lost Creek Drive	open
Jeremiah's Italian Ice Jeremiah's Italian Ice	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2613 Sentinel Wy Ste 100	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2617 Sentinel Way Suite 100	open
JilliBean BBQ	Food truck	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2602 Sherman St	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service		140 Bucees Blvd Ste 400	open
Lihoudies	Bakery	Bakery	6573 N McDonald St	open
Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3310 Sam Rayburn Highway	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2231 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Maria's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2321 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2810 Washington Dr.	open
Melissa Beer Yard	Bar		2522 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Melissa Restaurant Corporation	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2315 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Mon’Ami Sweets	Bakery	Bakery		open
Moon Made Cupcakes (Pre-orders only)	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	4220 Broadleaf Dr	open
Mountain Mike's Pizza Mountain Mike's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	3031 Washington Dr	open
Mr. Jim's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2028 State Highway 121 Ste 400	open
Murphy's Island	Food truck	BBQ · American	6577 N McDonald St	open
Nonis Brunch House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Breakfast	3210 Milrany Ln	open
Nutrition Oasis Tx	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2212 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Palio’s Pizza Café	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1521 Mckinney St Ste 700	open
Pat-Thai	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	2321 State Highway 121	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3591 McKinney St Collin	open
Roma Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2212 Sam Rayburn Hwy Ste 400	open
San Marcos Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2707 McKinney St	open
Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2405 Mckinney St	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	2619 Sentinel Way 100 Suite 100	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2404 Sam Rayburn Highway	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1210 Melissa Crossing Ct	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2611 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	2315 Sam Rayburn Hwy Ste 200	open
Sugar Babes Donut Shop & Deli	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Dessert	Dessert · Sandwiches · Bakery	2212 Sam Rayburn Hwy Ste 100	open
Sunview Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Breakfast	2615 Sentinel Wy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2641 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Tacos El Gordo Tacos El Gordo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	150 Bucees Blvd #100	open
The Bro Flavors	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	2522 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
The Dougout Sports Grill	Casual dining · Bar		3059 Champion Way	open
The Garam Masala Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	3310 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
The Red Feather	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2617 Sentinel Wy Ste 400	open
Tia's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1280 Sam Rayburn Hwy Ste 400	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee	2401 Mckinney St	open
True Texas BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1230 Central Expressway	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2702 Sam Rayburn Hwy	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	2619 Sentinel Way Suite 300	open
Yonx Pizza Bar & Co	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	1521 McKinney St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2004	3	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	8	8	1	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	10	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	14	3	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	21	6	10	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	19	3	11	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75454. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
75071	4.8 mi	116	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.