BMIE Market 75495

Grayson County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,120 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,157 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,904 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,095 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,789 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$111,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,511 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,438 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±375 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$397,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	67.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75495
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+220.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+433.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.64) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75495. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.64, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.4	71	35%	+25.0
Market Momentum Score	83.5	84	25%	+20.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,120	72	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	111,563	87	40%	+34.9
Households (ACS)	3,904	71	20%	+14.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.4	55	25%	+13.8
Population (ACS)	11,120	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	111,563	87	20%	+17.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	220	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (50)

By cuisine

American 7 · Mexican 7 · Dessert 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 6 · Coffee 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Pizza 5 · Bakery 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Asian 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Bar 9 · Dessert 9 · Quick service 7 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 4 · Food truck 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arroyos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	166 N Main Dr	open
Bill Smith's Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	233 E Jefferson St	open
Braum's Ice Cream & Burger Restaurant	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	848 Marshall St	open
Buck Snort BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	224 E Jefferson St	open
Burnt by J.H.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	224 E Jefferson St	open
Casey's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	990 W. Van Alstyne Parkway	open
Chill Out Shaved Ice - NTX	Dessert	Dessert	133 E Jefferson St	open
Cooley Bay Winery & Brewery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Brewery / taproom · Bar		545 Collin Mckinney Pkwy	open
Cosmos Ice Cream Parlor	Dessert	Dessert	974 West Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Cowboy Club VA & Sandy's Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		16 N Glen Cir	open
Degenhardt Brat Haus	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	388 N Waco St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	385 N. Henry Hynds Expressway	open
Dowling Distilling	Winery / distillery / taproom		126 S Main Dr	open
Durning House Bed & Breakfast	Restaurant (service type not stated)		245 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
EandM Ice Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	105 Beard Ln	open
El Patio Escondido Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	495 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Empanadas Encanto	Food truck	Latin American (other)	388 N Waco St	open
Fully Loaded Spuds	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Mexican	388 N Waco St	open
Gen 2214 Sdi Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1130 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Golden Chick Golden Chick	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	151 S Henry Hynds Expy	open
Home Town Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	511 N Waco St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		121 S Henry Hynds Expy	open
Jafar's Mediterranean Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	240 E Marshall St	open
La Cima Mexican Grill and Cantina	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	21 Farm to Market Rd 3356	open
Love + Sugar Custom Wedding Cake Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Blackthorn Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1001 W Stephens	open
Mexilicious Snacks	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	184 S Preston St	open
Mission Macarons	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	E Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Myth & Ember Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	212 E Marshall St	open
Nutrition to the Max	Juice, smoothie, tea · Casual dining	Juice / smoothies · Tea / bubble tea · American	976 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Pemberley Wine Company	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		82 County Road 80	open
Philly Fuegos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		388 N Waco St	open
Pho & Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Seafood · Asian	938 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Pit Commander Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · BBQ	224 E Jefferson St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	938 W Van Alstyne Parkway	open
Pure Country Sports Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining		946 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Rivera's Salva Tex-Mex Rivera's salva tex mex van alstyne tx	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	349 N Henry Hynds Expy	open
Romano's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	221 E Marshall St	open
Sno-Ball Express Shaved Ice	Dessert	Dessert		open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service	Burgers · American	1130 W. Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Taco Factory Taqueria & Bar Taco Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	946 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
Takara Hibachi Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Asian	150 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
TexaKona Coffee Lodge	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Coffee shop	Sandwiches · Mexican · Coffee · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	990 W Van Alstyne Pkwy	open
The Cowboy Club	Casual dining · Bar	American	15027 US-75	open
The Emerald	Bar		267 E Jefferson St	open
The Grind Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	388 N Waco St	open
The Railyard Taproom	Bar		218 E Jefferson St	open
The Sugar Bar Co.	Food truck · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bar	Juice / smoothies	388 N Waco St	open
WhistleStop Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Sandwiches	166 N Main St	open
Wild Road Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	80 Wild Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	6	1	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	1	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	1	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	7	6	1	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	6	1	5	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	12	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	16	15	9	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	6	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	12	5	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2015	15	13	5	5	3	1	NAICS2012
2016	13	11	4	5	2	1	NAICS2012
2017	15	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	15	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	14	4	7	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	16	6	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75495. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.