BMIE Market 75707

Smith County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	17,532 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,886 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,085 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±539 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,711 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,795 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,954 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,325 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,476 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±122 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$274,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,964 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	52.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	16 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75707
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+166.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+433.3% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.59) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	76 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75707. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.59, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.3	74	40%	+29.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.0	74	35%	+25.9
Market Momentum Score	76.2	76	25%	+19.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	17,532	79	40%	+31.7
Median household income (ACS)	84,954	68	40%	+27.2
Households (ACS)	6,085	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	35%	+25.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.1	76	25%	+18.9
Population (ACS)	17,532	79	20%	+15.8
Median household income (ACS)	84,954	68	20%	+13.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	14.3	72	50%	+36.2
10-year restaurant growth	33.3	73	30%	+22.0
20-year restaurant growth	166.7	90	20%	+18.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 4 · Coffee 4 · Pizza 4 · Burgers 3 · Dessert 3 · BBQ 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 10 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Café 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Big Flat Bay	Bar			open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		11406 State Highway 64 E	open
Chester's Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	16117 State Hwy 64	open
Cmv Restaurant Group Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3324 Spur 124	open
Copeland Cakes	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	4255 Chapel Rdg	open
Crawdaddy’s Boil-N-Go Chapel Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	12990 Big Oak Bay Rd	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	12050 Hwy 64 E 12050 Hwy 64 E	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	5111 Troup Hwy	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		12050 Hwy 64 E	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	5012 Troup Hwy	open
Grub House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	16408 State Highway 64 E	open
Hwy 110 & Shiloh Whataburger	Quick service		5003 Troup Hwy	open
Hwy 64 & County Rd 214 Whataburger	Quick service		12445 Hwy 64 E	open
Kason's All Star Donuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	12443 State Highway 64 E	open
Kool Kakes By Dylan	Bakery	Bakery	5615 Troup Hwy Ste 205	open
Mansion On the Hill Restaurant & Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3324 Spur 124	open
Mr.hos Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	16408 State Highway 64 E	open
Namaste Indo-Pak Grocery Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	3092 Spur 124	open
Pat Gee's Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	17547 County Road 26	open
Pizza Hut Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3828 Troup Hwy, Brookshires #605 S1f	open
Poke In Da Eye World Championship BBQ & Catering	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	11811 State Hwy 64	open
Route 64 Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	16408 State Hwy 64	open
Scoop and Grind	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	11726 State Hwy 64	open
Shipley Do-Nuts Shipley Do-Nuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	5119 Troup Hwy	open
Smoothie PROS	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	5111 Troup Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5050 Troup Hwy	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	11980 State Highway 64 E	open
Synergy Red Zone, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11406 State Highway 64 E	open
The Griff's Sports PLACE	Bar		Rt.01 Box 14104	open
Tinos Tacos 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12805 State Hwy 64	open
Topp's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	3101 Shiloh Rd #131	open
Topps Ambition Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3101 Shiloh Rd Ste 131	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	5050 Troup Hwy	open
Web Mason Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5615 Troup Hwy	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	5003 Troup Hwy	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	12445 Hwy 64 E	open
Wood and Bean	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12971 State Highway 64 E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	—	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	5	—	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	1	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	7	1	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	2	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	13	12	2	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	11	11	2	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	14	12	2	10	—	2	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	3	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	3	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	13	3	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	16	4	11	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	16	5	10	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75707. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.