BMIE Market 75791

Smith County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	15,786 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±907 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±417 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,125 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,952 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$92,107 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,277 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,418 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±272 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$267,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,931 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	39.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	22 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75791
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+29.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+175.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+633.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 21–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	82 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75791. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.0	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.3	71	35%	+25.0
Market Momentum Score	82.4	82	25%	+20.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	15,786	77	40%	+31.0
Median household income (ACS)	92,107	75	40%	+30.1
Households (ACS)	5,188	75	20%	+15.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	35%	+26.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.9	57	25%	+14.2
Population (ACS)	15,786	77	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	92,107	75	20%	+15.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	29.4	83	50%	+41.5
10-year restaurant growth	37.5	76	30%	+22.8
20-year restaurant growth	175	90	20%	+18.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (47)

By cuisine

American 9 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Mexican 6 · Pizza 5 · BBQ 4 · Coffee 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Latin American (other) 3 · Chinese 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Quick service 12 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 6 · Bar 4 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Casual dining 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Baby Debes Philly Cheese	Food truck · Delivery-focused		16822 McElroy Rd	open
Big G's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		11165 Live Oak Dr	open
Blackhawk Creek Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	20255 TX-110	open
Briar Creek Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom		10488 County Rd 2180	open
Burger King	Quick service		406 Highway 110 North	open
Chicken Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	406 State Highway 110 N	open
Cooksy's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	14325 FM 848	open
Country Gardens, Whitehouse, Texas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese		open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	419 St Hwy 110n 419 St Hwy 110n	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	404 State Hwy North	open
Donut Palace The Donut Palace San Diego TX	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	422 TX-110	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		419 St Hwy 110n	open
DudeBros Tyler, Tx	Dessert · Food truck	Dessert	303 State Highway 110 N	open
E Main St & Forrest Creek Dr Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	200 E Main St	open
El Jalisciense Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	904 TX-110	open
Fazoli's - CLOSED	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	304 E Main St	open
FireSide Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	16822 McElroy Rd	open
Golden China Buffet Golden China Buffet	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	203 State Highway 110 N	open
Good Juju Gourmet Cookies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	103 Forest Creek Dr	open
Good Juju Gourmet Cookies	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	103 Forest Creek Dr	open
Johnny's Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	904 State Highway 110 N	open
La Hacienda Tex-Mex Grill (WHITEHOUSE) La Hacienda	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	601 TX-110	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1200 TX-110	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	603 Hwy 110	open
Montez Creekside Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	1010 TX-110	open
Mr. Taco Jr Tortillas Tamales & Chips MR TACO JR	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	9841 FM 346 E	open
Mr. Taco Jr. MR TACO JR	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	303 TX-110	open
Nexgen, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1501 E Main St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	601 Hwy. 110 North Smith	open
Pizza Pro's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	601 State Highway 110 N	open
Ribmasters - Whitehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	803 TX-110	open
Ribtown Stevie Blues BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	601 State Highway 110 N	open
Rod’s Country Kitchen & Bbq	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		17927 George Taylor Rd	open
Santo cuervo taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	203 TX-110 Ste 1	open
Scooter's Coffee Scooter's Coffee	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	200 E Main St	open
Shields Mountain BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1010 State Highway 110 N	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	433 State Highway 110 N.	open
South Lake Grill (The Harbor)	Bar		18183 Concession Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	500 N. Texas Highway 110	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	601 Highway 110 N	open
Taco Bell	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	720 Highway 110 N.	open
The Daily Fix Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	113 TX-110 N	open
The Lakeside Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	18183 Concession Rd	open
TX-110 Whataburger	Quick service		1051 HWY 110 N	open
Whataburger	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1051 HWY 110 N	open
Whitehouse Baking Co	Bakery	Bakery	313 W Main St	open
Whitehouse Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	101 State Highway 110 N	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	6	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	4	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	11	10	7	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	13	4	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	15	5	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	15	6	9	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	19	18	7	11	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	17	16	6	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	5	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	17	16	7	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	17	16	7	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	15	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	15	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	18	7	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	19	19	7	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	17	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	17	17	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	20	19	5	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	22	22	6	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	19	4	12	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	22	5	14	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75791. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.