BMIE Market 75831

Leon County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,881 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±660 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,043 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±267 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	5,386 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,706 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$51,935 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,182 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	42.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$920 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±152 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$117,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,080 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	251.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 75831
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+62.5% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.10) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	46 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 75831. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.10, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	43.2	43	40%	+17.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.9	40	35%	+14.0
Market Momentum Score	60.7	61	25%	+15.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,881	60	40%	+24.0
Median household income (ACS)	51,935	17	40%	+7.0
Households (ACS)	2,043	61	20%	+12.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	35%	+18.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	26.6	24	25%	+6.0
Population (ACS)	4,881	60	20%	+12.0
Median household income (ACS)	51,935	17	20%	+3.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	8.3	53	30%	+15.8
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 12 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 5 · Burgers 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · BBQ 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Quick service 9 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 2 · Bar 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 2 · Café 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Annie Mae’s BBQ, Burgers, & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	1128 W Commerce St	open
Anthony's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	311 Craig	open
Cactus Grill Tex-Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	722 N Buffalo Ave	open
Champs Chicken Champs Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	431 W Commerce St	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2430 W. Commerce Street	open
Cinnabon	Other	Sandwiches	2605 West Commerce Street	open
Crawfish Hideaway Crawfish Hideaway #2 - Dayton, TX	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	143 Hill St	open
Dairy Queen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	605 W Commerce St	open
Dairy Queen Store Dairy Queen	Quick service	Burgers · American	I-45 W Commerce St	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2710 W Commerce St	open
Donut Palace	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1019 W Commerce St	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		2536 W Commerce	open
El Corral Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	233 Buffalo Ave	open
Halfway Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2710 W Commerce St	open
Kowboy Steak House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	8183 N US Highway 75	open
Laz Pinaz Lokaz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	2853 W Commerce St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	441 S Craigs Drive	open
Mickey's Pizza Mickey's Pizza & Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	1058 Commerce St E	open
Original Fried Pies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	I-45 & Hwy 79	open
Paleteria y neveria Buffalo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	714 W Commerce St	open
Pitt Grill	Casual dining	American	2535 E Commerce St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1608 W Commerce St	open
Pizza Inn Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	2430 W Commerce St	open
Pizza Pro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	814 W Commerce St	open
Rancho Viejo No 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	325 S Craig Dr	open
Rolling North Bound I-45	Bar			open
Sams Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2610 W Commerce St	open
Stagecoach Deli	Other	Sandwiches	420 E Commerce St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	1521 West Commerce, Texas Burger	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2605 West Commerce	open
Taqueria Lopez	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	717 N Buffalo Ave	open
Tara’s Donut Shop, Buffalo Tx	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Dessert	141 W Commerce St	open
The Coffee Nook	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	1030 Commerce St E	open
The Coffee Nook	Coffee shop	Coffee	1030 E Commerce St	open
The Pharm Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	520 W Commerce St	open
TX Burger Buffalo TX Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1521 W Commerce St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	11	11	2	8	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	9	9	2	7	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	12	6	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	10	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	12	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 75831. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.