BMIE Market 76009

Johnson County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	22,803 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,478 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,948 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±542 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,759 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,397 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$79,755 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,268 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,323 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$245,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,749 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	98.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76009
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-11.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+35.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+64.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+283.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	25 (range 21–30) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.37) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76009. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.37, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74	74	40%	+29.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.3	73	35%	+25.7
Market Momentum Score	45.7	46	25%	+11.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	22,803	84	40%	+33.4
Median household income (ACS)	79,755	62	40%	+24.7
Households (ACS)	6,948	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	35.3	75	35%	+26.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.1	72	25%	+18.0
Population (ACS)	22,803	84	20%	+16.7
Median household income (ACS)	79,755	62	20%	+12.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-11.5	17	50%	+8.7
10-year restaurant growth	35.3	75	30%	+22.5
20-year restaurant growth	64.3	72	20%	+14.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (76)

By cuisine

Mexican 17 · American 15 · Pizza 8 · Coffee 7 · Bakery 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 6 · Dessert 5 · Burgers 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · BBQ 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Caribbean 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 46 · Quick service 20 · Dessert 8 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Food truck 4 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Benny Joes Restaurant And Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	1014 W Highway 67	open
Bennys	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1014 W Highway 67	open
Bodacious Cones Bodacious Cones Mansfield	Dessert	Dessert	1040 US-67	open
Bty Materials, Llc Dba By The Yard Materials	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11311 E FM 917	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	6920 US-67	open
Cajun Crawlers Crawfish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	7301 E FM 917	open
Carl's. Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	8201 Happy Trl	open
Carnitas Rodriguez - Alvarado, Tx	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	8717 County Rd 109	open
Chicken Express Chicken Express	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	704 N Pkwy Dr	open
Chill Time Shaved Ice	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee		open
Ciao Bella Caffè	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	200 W Highway 67	open
Country Road Donuts & More	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	12872 FM917	open
Crossroads Cafe	Café	Coffee · American	1014 US-67	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1115 W Highway 67 1115 W Highway 67	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1109 County Road 607	open
Delicia Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Italian	901 S Parkway Dr	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	710 N Parkway	open
Don Chano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	921 N Cummings Dr	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		1115 W Highway 67	open
Dusty Roads BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ · Pizza · American	NW Corner 35W & 67	open
El Chalan Mexican Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3324 Luisa Ln	open
El Rey Alvarado	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	210 U.S. Hwy 67	open
El Rey Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	210 W Highway 67	open
Filthy Animals	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	6050 US-67	open
Flamingo Hut Shaved Ice	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	208 W Highway 67	open
Flor Del Campo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1203 S Parkway Dr	open
Game On Alvarado	Bar · Casual dining		1380 US-67	open
Go Loco Street Tacos & Burritos Go Loco Street Tacos & Burritos	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1104 W Highway 67	open
Halo BBQ and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	2507 CR-211	open
Henderson Chicken Food Truck-Alvarado, TX Henderson chicken 2015 N Masters Dr, Dallas ,75217	Food truck		115 S. Friou Street	open
How Sweet It Is Cakes By Moma Matthews	Bakery	Bakery	904 N Cummings Dr	open
I35W Alvarado Whataburger	Quick service		708 N PARKWAY DR	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		5780 I-35W, Alvarado, TX 76009, USA	open
Jarritos Mexican Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1380 E US-67	open
Jean Ranch Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Bar		3645 CR-206	open
La Receta de Abuela	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Caribbean	6921 US-67	open
Las Palmitas Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2601 Luisa Ln	open
Lin's China	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	200 Village Park Dr	open
Lins Kitchen Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		200 Village Park Dr	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	306 E Henderson St	open
Los Tres Taqueros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	12421 E FM 917	open
Massey’s BBQ - Alvarado	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	201 N Parkway Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1200 W Highway 67	open
Mi pueblo azteca	Food truck	Mexican	3607 S Burleson Blvd	open
Nicky's Saucy Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	901 S Parkway Dr	open
Norma's Burritos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	5300 US-67 unit 1	open
Ocean	Quick service	Burgers	1101 Glenwood Dr	open
Pam's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	303 US-67	open
PANADERIA MI LINDO GUANAJUATO	Bakery	Bakery · Mexican · Latin American (other)	3017 Luisa Ln	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	200 Village Park Dr # 206	open
Pioneer & Old Settlers Event Center	Bar		111 Reunion Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1056 W Hwy 67 Johnson	open
Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1100 W Highway 67	open
Prime Logistics Partners LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1007 S Rusk Ave	open
Qlm Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1014 W Highway 67	open
Restaurante Rueda's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	901 S Parkway Dr	open
Saucy & Sweets	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	300 Woodhaven Dr	open
Sdi 4121 Alvarado Tx Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1103 W Highway 67	open
Simple Simon's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	905 N Cummings Dr Ste 913	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1103 Highway 67 West	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3313 South I-35 West	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5900 Interstate 35 Frontage Rd	open
Street Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	6720 US-67	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	310 HWY 67 W	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1130 Highway 67 West	open
Taqueria Guerrero	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	133 FM2738	open
Taqueria Torres Taquería Torres Guápiles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	307 US-67	open
Texasroyalpizza.com	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	904 N Cummings Dr	open
The Daily Special Cafe	Café	Coffee · American	1058 W Highway 67	open
The Krab Sensation & Seafood on the Go.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern		open
The Rubber Duck	Dessert		200 W Highway 67	open
Ts &amp G, Llc Dba Texas Sand &amp Gravel Db A Ts &amp	Restaurant (service type not stated)		11311 E FM 917	open
Turkey Creek Bar & Grill	Bar		8705 FM 3136	open
Twitch Coffee Life	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Bakery	937 N Cummings Dr	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	Breakfast · American	1120 US-67	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	708 N PARKWAY DR	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	6	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	12	12	5	5	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	14	14	5	8	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	16	16	9	7	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	13	12	7	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	11	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2002
2007	18	17	9	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	16	6	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	14	11	5	5	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	18	14	6	7	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	18	15	8	6	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	21	19	7	11	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	18	17	5	11	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	20	19	5	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	20	5	12	3	—	NAICS2012
2016	24	22	5	12	5	—	NAICS2012
2017	25	23	4	14	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	29	26	5	16	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	23	4	15	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	26	22	4	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	26	22	5	14	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	22	5	14	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	27	23	5	13	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76009. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.