BMIE Market 76031

Johnson County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,920 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,494 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,984 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,759 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	6,427 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,155 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,673 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,422 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±87 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$200,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,516 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	72.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	27 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76031
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+42.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-29.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	31 (range 27–34) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.0 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	74 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76031. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	65.8	66	40%	+26.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.4	66	35%	+23.2
Market Momentum Score	74.1	74	25%	+18.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,920	80	40%	+32.2
Median household income (ACS)	69,155	46	40%	+18.3
Households (ACS)	5,984	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	42.1	78	35%	+27.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	14.3	55	25%	+13.9
Population (ACS)	18,920	80	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	69,155	46	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	42.1	78	30%	+23.4
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (39)

By cuisine

American 9 · Burgers 7 · Mexican 5 · Coffee 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Breakfast 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Quick service 10 · Bar 7 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 3 · Bakery 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Best Burger Barn Best Burger Barn - Denison	Quick service	Burgers · American	5108 Conveyor Dr	open
Black Sheep Baa and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		211 S Caddo St	open
Burger Bar Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	109 N Anglin St	open
Caddo Street Grill and Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	211 S Caddo St	open
Charged Protein lounge	Juice, smoothie, tea · Fast casual · Bar	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	2221 FM2280	open
Chef's Sandwiches, Soups, Etc	Other	Sandwiches	1916 E Henderson St	open
Dairy Queen of Cleburne W. Henderson St Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Burgers · Ice cream / frozen desserts	901 E Henderson St	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		901 W Henderson St	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		1616 N Main St	open
Ells Place	Casual dining	American · Burgers	4205 E FM 4	open
Hey There Sunshine	Bar		8 E Chambers St	open
Jimmie's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	114 E Chambers St	open
Jimmy John's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1151 W Katherine P Raines Dr Ste A	open
La Gringas Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1916 E Henderson St	open
Lindy’s Treats And Treasures	Bakery	Bakery	206 E Chambers St	open
Marisco El Primo	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		300 N Anglin St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2206 N Main	open
McDonald's	Quick service		1616 E Henderson St	open
McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1616 W Henderson	open
Mug On the Square	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	6 E Chambers St	open
Nolan River Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · American	209 N Caddo St	open
Nopalitos Taco Truck	Food truck	Mexican	933 County Rd 805	open
Our Back Deck Bar and Patio	Bar		1705 N Robinson St	open
Our Place Restaurant Our Place Restaurant Mansfield, TX	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	211 S Caddo St	open
Outskirts	Bar		2116 E FM 4	open
Paleteria La Flor De Michoacan	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican · Dessert	1214 E Henderson St	open
Pollo Rosa Vineyard and Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		1335 E FM 4	open
Raspados Snow Cones	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		209 N Anglin St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	604 N. Main Street	open
Soul Fire Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		6 N Caddo St	open
Stone Trough	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Casual dining · Bar	Sandwiches	2849 State Hwy 171	open
Taqueria la potosina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	939 E Henderson St	open
Taqueria Torres Taquería Torres Guápiles	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	216 E Henderson St	open
The Busy Bee Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1303 E Henderson St	open
The Quail Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	206 E Chambers St	open
Travis' Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom		2300 Hopewell Rd	open
Trovato Street	Dessert	Dessert	106 E Henderson St	open
Villa's Fine Pasticceria	Bakery	Bakery	2024 Malone Rd	open
Cleburne Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	115 E Henderson St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	39	38	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	34	34	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	42	42	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	51	51	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	54	54	18	33	3	—	NAICS1997
1999	57	55	18	32	5	2	NAICS1997
2000	56	55	21	29	5	1	NAICS1997
2001	32	31	6	21	4	—	NAICS1997
2002	28	28	10	16	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	28	27	9	16	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	27	27	10	16	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	25	25	9	15	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	23	23	8	14	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	16	5	10	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	16	4	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	15	15	4	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	3	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	17	16	3	12	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	17	4	13	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	20	19	5	14	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	18	16	4	12	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	17	6	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	21	20	6	14	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	17	3	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	22	18	3	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	25	22	3	16	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	23	6	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	24	5	16	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	26	6	17	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	28	27	7	17	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76031. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
76059	3.3 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.