BMIE Market 76249

Denton County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,637 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,012 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,344 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±320 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,194 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,762 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$120,169 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,565 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,943 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±327 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$356,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,316 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	71.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76249
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 7–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	87 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	61 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76249. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.5	79	40%	+31.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	87	87	35%	+30.5
Market Momentum Score	61.5	61	25%	+15.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,637	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	120,169	90	40%	+36.1
Households (ACS)	3,344	68	20%	+13.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.6	89	25%	+22.4
Population (ACS)	10,637	72	20%	+14.4
Median household income (ACS)	120,169	90	20%	+18.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (31)

By cuisine

American 5 · Bakery 5 · Dessert 4 · Mexican 4 · Coffee 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 5 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
156 Ice House	Casual dining · Bar		1880 FM156	open
Angeles Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	900 E McCart St	open
Barnett Sweets & Co.	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	137 W McCart St	open
Bj's Restaurant & Brewhouse Denton, Tx	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Italian		open
Classic Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	900 E McCart St #400	open
Cowboys Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	900 E McCart St	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1109 E McCart St	open
Fruit Delite Krum tx	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	202 W McCart St Ste 140	open
Golden Chick	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1101 E. McCart St.	open
Inn-Steak n Lobster house	Quick service	Steakhouse	4702 Lakeland Terrace	open
Krum Diner Andy's of Malvern	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	145 McCart St	open
Krumbles Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1541 E McCart St	open
La Queen Potato	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		4365 FM1173	open
Lobster grill house	Casual dining · Quick service · Bar		3520 Alexander Drive	open
Maelenas Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Miguelito's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1521 E McCart St	open
Miguelito's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	241 W Mccart St	open
NTX Crawfish Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	2555 Nail Rd	open
Our Blended Table	Café	Coffee	137 W McCart St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	900 E McCart St	open
Porto Finos Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	208 W McCart St	open
RJ's Bakery & Tea Room	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Bakery · Tea / bubble tea	202 W McCart St	open
Sassy Sno Shaved Ice	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck		McCart St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	1221 East Mccart	open
Stiff Peaks Confections	Bakery	Bakery	413 S 1st St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	900 E McCart Ste 400	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service		1651 E. McCart	open
Texas Chow	Catering · Specialty food shop	BBQ	7235 Plainview Rd	open
Texas Forever Steak & BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		115 W Lake St	open
Thirsty Heifer Coffee TX	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	3036 FM-156 N	open
Vercelli's Pasta & Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	208 W McCart St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	4	4	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	6	4	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	6	5	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	4	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	4	3	—	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	4	3	—	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	5	4	1	3	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	6	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76249. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.