BMIE Market 76266

Denton County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,155 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,280 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,804 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±530 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,495 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,321 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$99,425 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,056 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,478 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±228 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$338,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,458 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	122.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76266
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+28.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	14 (range 10–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.08) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	60 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76266. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.08, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.9	80	40%	+32.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.6	57	35%	+19.8
Market Momentum Score	59.8	60	25%	+14.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,155	80	40%	+31.9
Median household income (ACS)	99,425	81	40%	+32.2
Households (ACS)	6,804	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.9	73	25%	+18.2
Population (ACS)	18,155	80	20%	+15.9
Median household income (ACS)	99,425	81	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	28.6	83	50%	+41.3
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (58)

By cuisine

American 11 · Mexican 8 · Coffee 7 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · BBQ 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Pizza 3 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Breakfast 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Quick service 12 · Dessert 10 · Bar 8 · Bakery 6 · Café 6 · Casual dining 6 · Coffee shop 3 · Food truck 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
1886 Bar & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	205 Bolivar St	open
Babe's Chicken Dinner House Babe's Chicken Dinner House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	202 N 4th St	open
Bar VK Air Ranch Estates Association	Bar		10834 Merlin Dr	open
Bear's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	303 Bolivar St	open
Blake's Snow Shack	Dessert · Food truck		400 Locust St	open
Boat House 10 Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1601 Marina Cir	open
Chicken Express Chicken Express	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1406 W Chapman Dr	open
Cowboys Restaurant Sanger	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	711 N 5th St	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	500 N Stemmons St 500 N Stemmons St	open
Dan's Bagels - Argyle Dan's Bagels	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	8595 US-377	open
Dandy Donuts Dandy Donuts & Deli	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	315 N 5th St	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	600 S Stemmons St	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	551 N Stemmons St Freeway	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		500 N Stemmons St	open
Elks Lodge #2862	Bar		1601 Marina Cir	open
Farmhouse Cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	305 Bolivar St	open
Fatburger Fatburger	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Chicken / wings · Burgers · American	2040 N Stemmons St	open
Fuelcon Management Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		901 N Stemmons St	open
Fuzzy's Taco Shop Fuzzy's Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1004 Maple St Ste 101	open
Green Valley Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	2800 FM-455	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		650 N Stemmons Frwy	open
Joe's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2800 FM 455 W	open
Jus A Cup	Coffee shop	Coffee	308 Bolivar St	open
Kencandyman shop	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery	Juice / smoothies · Bakery	711 N 5th St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	499 West Chapman Dr	open
Little Michaels Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1412 N Stemmons St	open
Lone Oak Cafe	Café	Coffee	711 N 5th St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	601 N Stemmons St	open
Miguelito's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1412 N Stemmons St	open
Mimi's Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5839 Stone Creek Dr	open
Old West Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	711 N 5th St	open
Oriental Express Sanger Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		403 N Stemmons St	open
Oscar’s Street Tacos	Food truck	Mexican	904 S 5th St	open
Papa Ds Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	311 N 4th St	open
Paradise Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	205 Bolivar St	open
Parker Brothers Traildust Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	1200 S Stemmons St	open
Pellegrino's Italian Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	297 Freese Dr	open
Pepper Belly Bbq	Food truck	BBQ · American	203 E Chapman Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1004 Maple St	open
Roma's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	1108 N Stemmons St	open
Sam's Club DC	Bar		2130 N Stemmons St	open
Sanger Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	2858 FM 455	open
Shared Spoons	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	6727 FM 2164	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	900 Chapman	open
Sonic Drive-in, Sanger, Tx, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		900 W Chapman Dr	open
Southern BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	600 S Stemmons Service	open
Southern BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · BBQ	600 S Stemmons Freeway	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	701 Acker Street	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1413 W Chapman Drive, Tom Thumb Sanger 361	open
Stiletto Kitchen	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	311 N 5th St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1004 Maple St Ste 107	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	700 S Stemmons St	open
Taco Luchador	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	299 Freese Dr	open
The Candy Jar	Dessert	Dessert	202 Bolivar St	open
The Windmill Saloon	Bar		302 Bolivar St	open
Uptown Rail Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		204 Bolivar St	open
Vero & Spankys Fruteria	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	303 Bolivar St	open
Villa Grande Taco & Bar	Bar	Mexican	1114 N Stemmons St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	10	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	12	12	5	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	15	15	5	7	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	14	14	5	7	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	16	16	7	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	6	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	11	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	15	14	6	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	21	20	11	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	21	20	11	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	19	19	11	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	17	8	9	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	19	18	7	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	19	18	6	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76266. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.