BMIE Market 76273

Grayson County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,229 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,031 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,146 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±405 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,135 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,973 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$82,021 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,925 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,152 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±346 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$242,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±30,388 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	206.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76273
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+44.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+225.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 9–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.09) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	69 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	44 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76273. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.09, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	69.2	69	40%	+27.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	56.2	56	35%	+19.7
Market Momentum Score	43.5	44	25%	+10.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,229	72	40%	+29.0
Median household income (ACS)	82,021	65	40%	+25.9
Households (ACS)	4,146	72	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	11.6	66	25%	+16.5
Population (ACS)	11,229	72	20%	+14.5
Median household income (ACS)	82,021	65	20%	+12.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	44.4	61	20%	+12.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (44)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 6 · Bakery 5 · Mexican 4 · BBQ 3 · Burgers 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Dessert 2 · Pizza 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Asian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 12 · Bakery 5 · Bar 5 · Café 5 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 4 · Winery / distillery / taproom 4 · Food truck 3 · Dessert 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
56 Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	301 W Main St	open
Asian Gourmet \| Chinese • Cajun	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	810 N Union St Ste 301	open
Bake Sale at Urban Junkie	Bakery	Bakery	100 E Main St	open
Bayou Bugs & BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	27014 TX-56	open
Beggers	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	125 E Main St	open
Blessed Hands Homestead Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	5959 Old Sherman Rd	open
Breaking Bud Vineyard	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		1340 Riley Rd	open
Catfish Haven	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	24059 US-377	open
Circle Bar W Boer Goats	Bar	American	2744 Roland Rd	open
Daylight Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	608 N Union St	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1001 Highway 377 N	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1001 Highway 377 N	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1020 Us Highway 377 N Suite A	open
Food Of Dreams Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 W Main St	open
Food trailer martinez whitesboro tx	Food truck		102 Mineral St	open
Giddy-Up Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	545 US-377	open
Gimpy's Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar			open
Golden Chick	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1022 Highway 377 N	open
Golden Chick Golden Chick	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1022 US-377	open
Higher Grounds Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	601 N Union St	open
Hoss' Hooch House aka Chicken Don	Bar	Chicken / wings	216 Red River Dr	open
House of Brews	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	413 W Main St	open
Hwy 82 & Hwy 377 Whataburger	Quick service		1001 HIGHWAY 82 E	open
Las Haciendas Mexican Grill La Hacienda Mexican GRILL	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2500 US-82	open
Lovejoys On Main	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	138 E Main St	open
Lucky Cafe	Café · Casual dining	American · Coffee	31242 US-82	open
MaYa Family FOODS	Food truck		300 Charlie Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	871 Hwy 377 N	open
Mr. Jose Mexican Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	478 Sadler Rd	open
Namiku Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	19710 US-377	open
Pepe's Street Tacos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	302 Charlie Dr	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1050 Hwy 82 E Grayson	open
Poor Boy 377 Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	American · Coffee	21894 US-377	open
Ranch 82	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	12265 US-82	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1003 N Highway 377	open
Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1003 Highway 377 N	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	809 N Union Ste B	open
Sure-T RV & Boat Storage	Winery / distillery / taproom		34338 US HWY 82	open
Sweet Andi's Bakery	Café · Bakery	Coffee · Sandwiches · Bakery		open
Taco Casa Taco Casa	Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	1012 US-377	open
Tasty's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	125 E Main St	open
The Vineyards at Rancho Sereno	Winery / distillery / taproom		17234 FM678	open
Triple R Ranch	Winery / distillery / taproom		2700-2752 Co Rd 125	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	1001 HIGHWAY 82 E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	5	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	10	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	12	4	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	14	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	14	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	13	13	8	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	12	12	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	12	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	13	13	5	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76273. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.