BMIE Market 76651

Ellis County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,984 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±659 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,318 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	3,300 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,347 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$67,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,028 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±195 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$224,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,599 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	94.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76651
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	15.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+300.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+300.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.62) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	64 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76651. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.62, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 64 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.8	51	40%	+20.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.2	57	35%	+20.0
Market Momentum Score	95.0	95	25%	+23.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,984	57	40%	+22.7
Median household income (ACS)	67,500	43	40%	+17.2
Households (ACS)	1,318	54	20%	+10.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	30.1	20	25%	+5.0
Population (ACS)	3,984	57	20%	+11.4
Median household income (ACS)	67,500	43	20%	+8.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	100	96	50%	+48.0
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	300	97	20%	+19.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · American 6 · Burgers 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Bakery 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Quick service 8 · Dessert 4 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	1021 Dale Evans Dr	open
Dairy Queen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	Farm to Market Road 1134	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery	101 L R Campbell Rd	open
Golden Chick Golden Chick	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	101 L R Campbell Rd Ste 200	open
Grandy's	Casual dining	American	101 L R Campbell Rd	open
Italy Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	148 W Main St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers	160 Riddle Rd	open
Jack In The Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	101 L R Campbell Rd	open
La Estrellita 2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	405 Mosley St	open
La Hacienda	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	129 W Main St	open
Mammas Place	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	405 Mosley St	open
Matlab Food, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1020 Dale Evans Dr	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	101 L R Campbell Rd	open
Página: La Hacienda	Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	201 Main St	open
Pizza Inn	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	100 L R Campbell Rd,	open
Sin 4 Eat'Z	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		504 Waco St	open
Sin 4 Treat'z	Dessert · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	504 Waco St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1020 Dale Evans Drive	open
Stuckey's	Dessert		110 L R Campbell Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Other · Casual dining	Sandwiches · American	100 L R Campbell Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	100 L R Campbell Rd	open
Tda Manufacturing, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1018 Dale Evans Dr	open
Texas Best Smokehouse 1	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1020 Dale Evans Dr	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	101 L R Campbell Road	open
Tin Barn Flea Market	Quick service	BBQ	120 Deere Chapel	open
Twisty donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	500 Clark St	open
Valerie’s taco shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	160 Riddle Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	5	5	1	3	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	6	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	7	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	8	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	12	3	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76651. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
76041	4.0 mi	—
76623	4.9 mi	—

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.