BMIE Market 76657

McLennan County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	12,760 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,147 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,562 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±418 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,307 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,631 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$97,634 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21,971 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,295 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±145 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$373,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±64,932 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	138.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 76657
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-18.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+125.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	8 (range 5–11) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.21) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	55 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	76 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	18 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 76657. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.21, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	76.1	76	40%	+30.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.2	58	35%	+20.4
Market Momentum Score	18	18	25%	+4.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 76 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	12,760	74	40%	+29.7
Median household income (ACS)	97,634	79	40%	+31.7
Households (ACS)	4,562	73	20%	+14.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	35%	+6.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.1	84	25%	+21.0
Population (ACS)	12,760	74	20%	+14.9
Median household income (ACS)	97,634	79	20%	+15.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 18 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-18.2	14	50%	+7.0
10-year restaurant growth	-10	18	30%	+5.5
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+5.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

American 7 · Mexican 7 · Pizza 4 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · BBQ 1 · European 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 11 · Dessert 5 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Bar 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
American Pizza and Burger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Pizza · American		open
Best Donuts and Kolache Shop	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1001 S Main St	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		307 W McGregor Dr	open
Bush's Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	710 W McGregor Dr	open
Cafe No Fur Texas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vegetarian · Burgers	1006 W McGregor Dr	open
Cancun Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	409 E McGregor Dr	open
Coach's Bar-B-Que	Bar	BBQ	925 W McGregor Dr	open
Coffee Shop Cafe	Café	Coffee · American	1005 W McGregor Dr	open
Cuppiecakes	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	313 S Main St	open
Dairy Queen Store Dairy Queen	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1310 W McGregor Dr	open
Dichotomy Coffee & Spirits	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3011 Rockbridge Rd	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		1310 W McGregor Dr	open
Eddie Ray's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)		31159 W Highway 84	open
El Rey Azteca	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1020 W McGregor Dr	open
El Taquito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1315 W McGregor Dr	open
Fox’s Treats & Eats	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	31707 US-84	open
Franklin Beerworks	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		319 S Main St	open
Guadalajara Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused	Mexican	dollar store hwy 84 in MCGREGOR TEXAS	open
Gus's Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	402 W 3rd St	open
Harris Creek Burgers and Breakfast	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Burgers · Sandwiches	27401 US-84	open
Hot Stuff Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	804 W Mcgregor Dr	open
Indian Trails, McGregor, Texas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian		open
Jack and Jill Donuts	Bakery · Dessert · Café	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	512 W McGregor Dr	open
La Hacienda Mexican Grill and Cantina La Hacienda Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	1020 W McGregor Dr	open
LoFlap Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1045 Wyatt Ln	open
Luigi's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · European	510 S Main St	open
MacTown Nutrition Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	524 S Main St	open
Main Street Sno-Balls - Shaved Ice	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	200 S Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		302 W Mcgregor Dr	open
Milano's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	305 S Main St	open
Papi Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Mexican		open
Pizza Town Pizza Town Marlboro NY	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	510 W McGregor Dr	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	926 West Mcgregor	open
Stella	Casual dining		313 S Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	612 W McGregor Dr	open
Taquisa Waco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	409 E McGregor Dr	open
Tiptop Variety Shoppe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		400 S Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	5	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	11	10	5	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	4	5	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	12	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	10	9	4	5	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	13	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	13	13	6	7	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	5	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	11	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	10	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	9	8	—	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 76657. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.