BMIE Market 77423

Waller County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,767 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,773 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,734 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±575 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,483 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,471 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$84,490 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,570 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,394 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±344 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$314,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,622 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	148.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 77423
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+27.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+250.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 15–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	84 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 77423. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.4	74	40%	+29.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	74.4	74	35%	+26.0
Market Momentum Score	83.6	84	25%	+20.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,767	80	40%	+32.1
Median household income (ACS)	84,490	68	40%	+27.0
Households (ACS)	5,734	76	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	35%	+24.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.5	83	25%	+20.6
Population (ACS)	18,767	80	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	84,490	68	20%	+13.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 84 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	27.3	69	30%	+20.8
20-year restaurant growth	250	95	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (56)

By cuisine

Mexican 10 · Bakery 7 · American 6 · Coffee 6 · Dessert 6 · Latin American (other) 5 · Pizza 5 · Sandwiches 5 · BBQ 3 · Burgers 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Vegan 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 27 · Quick service 15 · Bakery 9 · Bar 7 · Dessert 6 · Coffee shop 4 · Café 3 · Casual dining 3 · Other 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
529 bar	Bar		39312 FM 529	open
Adrian's Mexican Street Food Adrian's Mexican Street Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	416 Waller Ave	open
Alameda Meat Market #2	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Mexican · Sandwiches · Bakery	4307 S Front St	open
All Seasons	Bar		32601 FM 529 Rd	open
Aunt Bea's Cupcakes	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	32810 Teal St	open
Baa Baa Brewhouse	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		539 FM359	open
Beans & Brews Coffee House	Coffee shop	Coffee	2506 Jordan Ranch Blvd Ste 1	open
Berta's II Pool and Bar	Bar	American	39314 FM-529	open
Boudin Cafe'	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	3808 Clemons Switch Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	340 FM359	open
Cazadores	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1988 FM 359 Rd	open
Chopan Ranch Restaurant & Ballroom Weekends Reservation	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Healthy / salads / bowls · Vegan	3808 Clemons Switch Rd	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	205 Waller Avenue	open
D'Lux Donuts & Kolaches	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	4327 S Front St	open
Denny's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		204 S Waller	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Sandwiches	35123 Katy Fwy	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	3905 11th Street	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	204 S Waller Ave Pilot Travel Center	open
Espree's Tasty Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · BBQ	3518 Brook Shadow Dr	open
Flowers Restaurant By Zoe Anais	Café	Vegetarian · Coffee	35814 Royal Rd	open
Galileo's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	1988 FM 359 Rd	open
Hampco Services Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		35002 Cooper Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		321 Fm 359 Rd S	open
Jessica's Express Taqueria y Refresqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	217 Waller Ave	open
Kickboxing Circuit Training Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		29711 Kingsland Blvd Ste 600	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6936 FM 362	open
Magili Bakery	Bakery	Bakery · Latin American (other)	3921 S Front St	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	30543 Kingsland Blvd	open
Mari's Tacos	Quick service	Mexican	6723 FM359	open
Mccouls Lawn Care Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1315 FM 362 Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		29910 Jordan Crossing Blvd.	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	308 Fm 359	open
Milk & Brew	Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Breakfast · Bakery	540 FM 359 Rd S	open
Orlando's Pizza Orlando's Pizza	Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	602 Waller Ave	open
Ortega Mexican Grill	Food truck · Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	6723 FM 359 Rd	open
Papis Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3922 11th St	open
Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3603 Front St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5430 FM359 Rd	open
Pop's Pitt Bar BQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	4225 S Front St	open
Popeyes Popeyes	Quick service		29811 Jordan Crossing Blvd	open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	340 FM 359 Rd S	open
Rita's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Bar		39312 FM 529	open
Shipley Do-Nuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	29907 Jordan Crossing Blvd., Ste 900	open
Shipley Do-Nuts Shipley Do-Nuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	5430 FM359 #900	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	30575 Kingsland Blvd	open
Sosa Goods Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Morning Dove Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	205 Waller Ave	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches		open
Swingmore Sports Limited Liability Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		225 Koomey Rd	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	34003 Katy Freeway	open
Tacos Y Tortas Adrian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	416 Waller Ave	open
The Awakening Coffee Shop	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1238 FM359	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican · Burgers	204 S Waller	open
The Cafe at Brookwood	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1752 Farm to Market 1489	open
The Iron Horse Saloon	Bar		539 FM359	open
TruFusion	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Indian	542 Koomey Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	7	6	1	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	5	—	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	6	5	—	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	6	4	1	3	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	6	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	5	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	6	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	11	5	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	14	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	14	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	15	6	9	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	14	3	11	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 77423. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
77466	3.2 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.