BMIE Market 77905

Victoria County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,599 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±916 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,037 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±348 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,981 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,712 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$88,585 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,275 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,103 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±73 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$227,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,832 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	428.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 77905
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+20.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–8) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, 0.0 per year, r² 0.00) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 77905. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, 0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.00, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	75.5	75	40%	+30.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.3	66	35%	+23.2
Market Momentum Score	64.8	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,599	78	40%	+31.3
Median household income (ACS)	88,585	72	40%	+28.8
Households (ACS)	6,037	77	20%	+15.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.6	96	25%	+24.0
Population (ACS)	16,599	78	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	88,585	72	20%	+14.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	50	90	50%	+45.1
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	20	46	20%	+9.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

American 4 · BBQ 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Coffee 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 2 · Quick service 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aunt Jo's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	5303 US-77	open
Belle Vie Patisserie and Home Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery	1472 Old Bloomington Rd N	open
Big T's Smoke Shack	Bar		421 Blake St	open
Country Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	6064 SW Moody St	open
Crazy Chicken Lady's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	Fannin RD	open
El Nuevo León Bar	Bar		4802 Old Port Lavaca Rd	open
Gulf Breeze Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		3005 FM 1685	open
Gypsy Mc Int Crossroads Chapter Clubhouse	Bar		179 Church Ln	open
J Welch Farms	Winery / distillery / taproom		111 Ripple Rd	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Cracker Barrel Old Country Store	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	8080 State Hwy 185 S	open
Limon’s BBQ Smokehouse	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	3494 SW Moody St	open
Lonestar Tavern	Casual dining · Bar	American	5354 FM447	open
Rustyjos Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		12823 FM622	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3633 Southwest Moody	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5684 US Highway 77 S	open
The Cracked Crab	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	700 Coleto Park Rd	open
The Fry Shack	Food truck	American	2441 Burroughsville Rd	open
The Kornpatch	Bar · Quick service		1274 FM-236	open
The McFaddin Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	1859 McFaddin Rd N	open
Thom Joshua Enterprises Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5303 US Highway 77 S	open
Victoria's Cafe Victoria's Cafe - Thai and American Cuisine	Café	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Coffee	3405 US-59 N	open
Wellhead Tavern	Bar		23404 NW Zac Lentz Pkwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	10	9	7	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	7	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	7	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	7	5	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	8	6	4	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	8	7	5	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	8	7	5	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	6	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	6	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	7	5	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	6	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	4	—	—	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	7	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	6	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 77905. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.