BMIE Market 78009

Medina County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,151 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±989 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,980 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±321 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,255 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,860 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,125 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,795 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,250 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±129 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$368,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±50,461 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	70.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78009
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	22.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+92.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+257.1% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	23 (range 18–28) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.57) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	75 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	88 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78009. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.57, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 75 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	74.3	74	40%	+29.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	67.7	68	35%	+23.7
Market Momentum Score	88.1	88	25%	+22.0

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,151	69	40%	+27.8
Median household income (ACS)	103,125	83	40%	+33.1
Households (ACS)	2,980	67	20%	+13.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	92.3	90	35%	+31.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	27.3	23	25%	+5.8
Population (ACS)	9,151	69	20%	+13.9
Median household income (ACS)	103,125	83	20%	+16.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	92.3	90	30%	+27.0
20-year restaurant growth	66.7	73	20%	+14.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (61)

By cuisine

American 15 · Mexican 7 · Bakery 5 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 5 · Pizza 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · BBQ 3 · Burgers 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Asian 1 · European 1 · French 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 33 · Quick service 13 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 7 · Dessert 6 · Food truck 6 · Bakery 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Café 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&G’s Treats & Eats	Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	1896 US Highway 90 E	open
AJ's Bar	Bar		636 County Road 466	open
Andrea's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	901 US-90	open
Baked by Chef Grecia Ramos	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	409 Paris St	open
Bean & Boba	Café · Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	609 US-90	open
Bill Miller Bar-B-Q Bill Miller Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	103 FM 471 N	open
Billy Bob's Hamburgers Billy Bob's Hamburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1314 US-90	open
Bush's Chicken Bush's Chicken - Laredo	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	935 US Highway 90 E	open
Castroville Barbecue Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1303 Lorenzo St	open
Castroville Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	309 Lafayette St	open
Castroville Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1306 US Highway 90 W	open
Cecelia's Maison du Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	311 Lafayette St	open
Church's Chicken	Quick service		915 US Highway 90 E	open
Cora's 471 Grill	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · American	2204 FM471	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1202 US Highway 90 W	open
Dan’s Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1303 Lorenzo St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	703 Us Highway 90 East Ste 106	open
Donut Palace	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1102 US-90	open
Dorn Michelle's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Sandwiches	3135 FM471	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		1202 US Highway 90 W	open
Eden Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	1403 Angelo St	open
El Portal de Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	810 Old Hwy 90	open
El Rincon El Rincón	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	703 US-90	open
Elevate on Fiorella	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1201 Fiorella St	open
Golden Chick Golden Chick	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	415 US-90	open
Haby's Alsatian Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	207 US Highway 90 E	open
Handcrafted Creations by Aubrie	Bakery	Bakery	DSHS Registration #11959	open
Hill Country Cider House	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		405 US Highway 90 W	open
Julianna's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	1581 County Road 4516	open
K P Investments	Restaurant (service type not stated)		609 Highway 90 W	open
La Colline	Bar	French · European	1651 US-90 West	open
La Pasada Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	1302 US-90	open
LOVE PUPPY BAKERY	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1314 Lisbon St	open
LT Mesquite Brew Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		3096 US Highway 90 W	open
Luigi's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1403 Angelo St	open
Magnolia Filling Station	Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1101 Fiorella St	open
Mateos Pizza and Wings	Food truck	Pizza · Italian	1896 US Highway 90 E	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	801 Hwy 90 W	open
Medina River Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		3179 FM471	open
Mr. Cool Shaved Ice Shop - 1896 US Hwy 90 Castroville TX	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1896 US-90	open
Panda Hill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	188 Co Rd 4516	open
Paris St. Po'Boys	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	1302 Fiorella St	open
Patricia's Kitchen	Catering · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	105 County Road 5606	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	945 Hwy 90 East Medina	open
R & R Bar-B-Que R&R BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1032 Country Ln	open
Sammy's Sammy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	202 US Highway 90 E	open
Sawyer's Shack	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	US Hwy 90 E	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	915 US-90	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	955 Highway 90 East	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	201 US-90	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	1151 US Highway 90 E	open
Taqueria San Juan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1012 US-90	open
Tex Mex Ice Cream & Paletas	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1306 US-90	open
The Alsatian Restaurant & Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	German / Eastern European	1651 US Highway 90 W	open
The Bumpkin	Bar		2409 US-90	open
The Dough Station	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	409 US-90	open
THE LOT Bar & Food Truck	Casual dining · Food truck · Bar		1896 US-90	open
The Ranch Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Tea / bubble tea · Healthy / salads / bowls	301 Lafayette St building b	open
Tony's Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	1302 B US-90	open
US 90 & Country Ln Whataburger	Quick service		813 US HIGHWAY 90 E	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	813 US HIGHWAY 90 E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	13	13	7	5	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	17	17	9	6	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	12	11	5	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	14	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	14	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	15	15	7	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	13	12	7	4	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	15	15	9	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	11	5	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	17	15	9	6	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	14	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	13	7	6	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	17	16	7	9	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	6	7	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	6	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	13	13	7	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	7	7	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	8	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	11	6	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	15	8	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	15	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	8	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	26	25	9	12	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78009. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.