BMIE Market 78015

Kendall County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	24,867 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,440 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,108 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±790 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,602 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,622 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$162,487 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,043 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,060 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,044 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$492,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,282 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.9 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	10 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78015
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+66.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+400.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+400.0% DERIVED: 1996 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	13 (range 10–15) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78015. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.3	89	40%	+35.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	93.6	94	35%	+32.8
Market Momentum Score	94.8	95	25%	+23.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	24,867	85	40%	+34.1
Median household income (ACS)	162,487	97	40%	+38.9
Households (ACS)	8,108	82	20%	+16.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	35%	+33.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.0	95	25%	+23.7
Population (ACS)	24,867	85	20%	+17.0
Median household income (ACS)	162,487	97	20%	+19.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	66.7	93	50%	+46.5
10-year restaurant growth	150	95	30%	+28.6
20-year restaurant growth	400	98	20%	+19.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (16)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · American 3 · British / Irish pub food 2 · Italian 2 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Mexican 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 9 · Coffee shop 4 · Bar 3 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Capparelli Bros	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	9091 Fair Oaks Pkwy	open
Conroy's Irish Pub and Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	British / Irish pub food	9091 Fair Oaks Pkwy	open
El poblano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	29202 Ralph Fair Rd	open
Fair Oaks Roost	Bar · Casual dining	American	9091 Fair Oaks Pkwy #201	open
Fun Hun 69	Bar	British / Irish pub food	9091 Fair Oaks Pkwy	open
Gabriella Coffee Consulting	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8000 Fair Oaks Pkwy	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	10049 Lemon Creek Blvd Ste 117	open
Joyce Cake Bake Shop	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	30711 Keeneland Dr	open
Kiva Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	30260 Saratoga Ln	open
Kiva Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop	Coffee	30260 Saratoga Ln	open
Luciano Ristorante Italiano - Fair Oaks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	27650 W Interstate 10 Frontage Rd	open
Maibaum Logistics	Restaurant (service type not stated)		28702 Front Gate	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	9091 Fair Oaks Pkwy Ste 207	open
Parker's Ice Creams	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8000 Fair Oaks Pkwy	open
Spotted Deer Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	8000 Fair Oaks Pkwy	open
Toroko Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	9091 Fair Oaks Pkwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1996	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	4	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	5	3	1	1	1	1	NAICS2012
2017	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	7	—	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	8	7	—	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	7	—	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	10	—	4	4	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	10	—	3	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78015. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.