BMIE Market 78016

Medina County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,670 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,203 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,013 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±310 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,630 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,816 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$60,736 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,962 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$732 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$221,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±33,778 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	158.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78016
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.16) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	49 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	46 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	44 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78016. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.16, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 49 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	55.7	56	40%	+22.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45.8	46	35%	+16.0
Market Momentum Score	44.4	44	25%	+11.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,670	73	40%	+29.2
Median household income (ACS)	60,736	31	40%	+12.3
Households (ACS)	4,013	71	20%	+14.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	11,670	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	60,736	31	20%	+6.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 44 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (46)

By cuisine

Mexican 11 · American 10 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 8 · Coffee 6 · Dessert 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Burgers 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 30 · Quick service 9 · Café 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alphabet Soup Thrift and Cafe	Café	Coffee	315 County Road 761	open
Big A's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1767 TX-173	open
Billy Bob's Hamburgers Billy Bob's Hamburgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	619 E Hondo Ave	open
Black Creek Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1721 TX-173	open
Black Creek Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	200 E College Ave	open
Charlie's Daughter On The Green	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	116 W Malone Dr	open
Charlie's II Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		114 S Teel Dr	open
Chayito's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	500 Ross Ave	open
Chunky’s Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	410 W Hondo Ave	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	109 S. Teal Avenue	open
Chuy's Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		2626 TX-132 N	open
Chuy's Takeout and Dine-In Chuy's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	300 TX-132	open
Chuys Takeout & Dine-In	Restaurant (service type not stated)		300 State Highway 132 N	open
CrisTea's	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	114 N Transportation Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	506 W Hondo Ave 506 W Hondo Ave	open
Devine Cafe	Café	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Coffee	1202 W Hondo Ave	open
Devine Nutrition-Devine T.X	Café	Coffee	117 E Colonial Pkwy	open
Devine Tortilla Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	201 S Transportation Dr	open
Donut Palace	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	201 S Teel Dr	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		506 W Hondo Ave	open
Elenas ice cream	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	201 TX-132	open
Foxy's Bar	Bar		522 S Teel Dr	open
Get Some! BarBeQue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	205 TX-132	open
Heavy's Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	201 W Hondo Ave	open
Juan's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	316 E Hondo Ave	open
Kenneth L Cox Enterprises Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		698 E Hondo Ave	open
Las Palmas Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	300 N Teel Dr	open
Lisa’s Sugar Fix	Bakery	Bakery		open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1009 East Hondo Street	open
Meat Cleaver And Sons Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		619 E Hondo Ave	open
Murphy's Quality Meats	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	504 W Hondo Ave	open
Nellie Ruth's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	405 E Hondo Ave	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	607 E. Hondo	open
Rihn's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American		open
Rocky's Roadside Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	779 State Highway 173 S	open
Roy's Beverage Barn	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	19210 FM 463	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	697 East Hondo Ave	open
Sonny's Italian Restaurant And Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	114 S Teel Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1009 E Hondo Ave, #3	open
Taco Rose	Food truck	Mexican	2194 TX-173	open
Taqueria Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	743 TX-173	open
Tink-A-Tako 15	Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	619 E Hondo Ave	open
Triple C Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	698 E Hondo Ave	open
Two Head Eagle Pizzeria & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	320 Ingram Rd	open
Viva Zapata Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	501 E Hondo Ave	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	175 Interstate 35 N	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	6	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	11	9	2	7	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	14	13	5	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	15	12	6	6	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	15	12	6	5	1	2	NAICS2002
2005	16	14	5	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	17	14	6	7	1	2	NAICS2002
2007	18	16	7	8	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	22	19	9	9	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	19	18	8	9	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	17	16	7	9	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	20	19	9	10	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	19	18	10	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	19	18	12	6	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	20	19	11	8	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	20	19	12	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	18	16	9	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	19	17	8	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	18	6	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	19	16	6	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	19	16	9	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	17	9	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	9	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78016. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.