BMIE Market 78112

Bexar County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	9,769 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±664 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,617 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±543 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,941 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,743 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,988 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,100 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,319 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±112 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$131,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,890 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	51.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78112
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+50.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–6) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.27) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	53 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	51 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	32 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78112. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.27, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 53 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	50.7	51	40%	+20.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.5	71	35%	+25.0
Market Momentum Score	32.3	32	25%	+8.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 51 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	9,769	70	40%	+28.2
Median household income (ACS)	54,988	22	40%	+8.7
Households (ACS)	3,617	70	20%	+13.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 71 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	3.1	97	25%	+24.3
Population (ACS)	9,769	70	20%	+14.1
Median household income (ACS)	54,988	22	20%	+4.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 32 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-25	11	50%	+5.4
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+24.7
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (17)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · American 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · BBQ 3 · Coffee 3 · Burgers 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 2 · Bakery 1 · Dessert 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 10 · Food truck 3 · Quick service 3 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bakery La Promesa #2	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee	3712 New Mathis Rd	open
Bill Miller Bar-B-Q Bill Miller Bar-B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	20135 I-37 S	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	20290 I-37	open
El Guero Loco Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3712 New Mathis Rd #2	open
FAZ Gourmet Coffee & Organic Tea Store	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	22811 Grand Spg	open
Frank's Tacos	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	23130 Dragon Rock Rd	open
Frank's Tacos	Quick service · Food truck	Mexican	20305 Interstate 37 S	open
Hot Stuff Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	20275 I-37 S	open
J&S Smokehouse J's House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3710 Waterwood Pass Dr	open
La bella food truck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea · Food truck	Juice / smoothies	14003 Donop Rd	open
Lakeside Barista Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Dessert	Coffee · Dessert	14335 Streich Rd	open
Mi Ranchito Mini Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13587 Donop Rd	open
Mia's Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	17307 Old Corpus Christi Rd #5126	open
Smokin D's Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	17523 Ranchview Estates Dr	open
Tacos El Agavero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13587 Donop Rd	open
Tacos El Mezcalero	Food truck	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	15550 Laguna Rd	open
Tom's Burgers & More	Casual dining	Burgers · American	13950 I-37	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	5	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2023	4	3	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78112. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.