BMIE Market 78123

Guadalupe County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	2,127 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±705 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	878 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±248 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,397 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,262 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$97,553 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±43,437 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±21 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	Data source not yet connected
Median home value	$238,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±151,959 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	3.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78123
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2016 → 2021, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+500.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 4–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2010–2023 (11 points, +0.2 per year, r² 0.46) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	60 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	65 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78123. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2010–2023, +0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.46, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	59.5	60	40%	+23.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	62.8	63	35%	+22.0
Market Momentum Score	64.9	65	25%	+16.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	2,127	46	40%	+18.4
Median household income (ACS)	97,553	79	40%	+31.7
Households (ACS)	878	47	20%	+9.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.2	22	25%	+5.5
Population (ACS)	2,127	46	20%	+9.2
Median household income (ACS)	97,553	79	20%	+15.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	100	82	20%	+16.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (15)

By cuisine

Coffee 2 · Mexican 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 8 · Bar 4 · Quick service 3 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bait & Brew	Bar		8614 FM 725	open
Blake's Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	9216 FM 725	open
Boot Scootin Bar	Bar		4004 FM78	open
Gloria's Mexican Restaurant Gloria's Restaurant Soul Food & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	7740 FM725	open
ICE ICE Shavings & Cravings	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1131 Terminal Loop Rd	open
La Carreta Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		4004 FM 78	open
Lulu's Mexican Food	Food truck	Mexican	4004 FM78	open
Morning Buzz Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	8950 FM725	open
Pica Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Breakfast	8986 FM725	open
Smitty's bar	Bar		pecan dr nw	open
Steak and Thai Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	1216 Terminal Loop Rd	open
Street Tacos Mi Ranchito	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4004 FM 78	open
Tejas Smoked Meats	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	3556 FM78 Ste 205	open
The Deeply Rooted Bar	Bar · Casual dining		8614 FM725	open
Weenie Mart	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	121 Gallagher Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	7	5	5	—	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	5	—	—	3	NAICS1997
2000	6	3	3	—	—	3	NAICS1997
2001	6	3	3	—	—	3	NAICS1997
2002	4	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	3	2	1	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2009	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2010	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2011	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2013	4	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	6	3	1	2	—	3	NAICS2012
2015	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS2012
2017	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	4	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	8	6	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78123. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.