BMIE Market 78260

Bexar County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	38,023 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,238 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,874 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±615 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	24,844 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,665 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$154,590 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,300 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,978 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±201 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$498,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±23,151 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	25.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	25 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78260
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	1.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+127.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+525.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,400.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	33 (range 27–39) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.5 per year, r² 0.79) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	94 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	93 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	81 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78260. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.79, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	93.7	94	40%	+37.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	92.6	93	35%	+32.4
Market Momentum Score	81.2	81	25%	+20.3

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	38,023	93	40%	+37.2
Median household income (ACS)	154,590	97	40%	+38.6
Households (ACS)	11,874	89	20%	+17.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	127.3	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.6	86	25%	+21.5
Population (ACS)	38,023	93	20%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	154,590	97	20%	+19.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 81 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.7	66	50%	+33.0
10-year restaurant growth	127.3	95	30%	+28.5
20-year restaurant growth	525	99	20%	+19.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (45)

By cuisine

American 9 · Mexican 8 · Pizza 6 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Burgers 4 · Dessert 4 · Chicken / wings 3 · Coffee 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Bakery 2 · Seafood 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · British / Irish pub food 1 · European 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 31 · Quick service 11 · Dessert 5 · Bar 3 · Café 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Other 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amai Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	946 E Borgfeld Dr	open
Antojito Corazón	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1444 Borgfeld Dr	open
Antojitos Mariscos Marisol	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood · Latin American (other)	25020 Blanco Rd #170	open
Authentic Taquitos San Miguel Allende	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	26714 U.S. Hwy 281 N	open
Borgfeld Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	European · American	856 E Borgfeld Dr	open
Borgfeld Square Market	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	San Antonio Car Rental, 26611 Dancing Bear	open
Bulverde Rd & US Hwy 281 Whataburger	Quick service		26510 US HIGHWAY 281 N	open
Camila's Mexican Restaurant Camila's Mexican Restaurant- Henderson Pass	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	21510 Blanco Rd	open
Canyon Springs Neighborhood	Restaurant (service type not stated)			open
Champs Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	25580 Blanco Rd	open
Choke Canyon BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	21510 Blanco Rd	open
Coast and Crisp	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · British / Irish pub food	1304 Borgfeld Dr Ste 200	open
Cocktail Crafthaus Co	Bar		26610 US-281	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	26108 Overlook Parkway	open
El Guacamole Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	25020 Blanco Rd	open
El Ranchero Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	26180 Canyon Golf Rd	open
Far North Central, San Antonio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian		open
Firewater Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	26108 Overlook Pkwy Ste 1100	open
Golden Chick	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		26210 Canyon Golf Rd	open
Great American Cookies	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Bakery	22506 US Hwy 281 N Ste 101	open
Hangar 54 Pizza Hangar 54 Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Chicken / wings	25580 Blanco Rd	open
La Herradura Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	916 E Borgfeld Dr	open
Laurel Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	24851 Canyon Golf Rd	open
Lee's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Breakfast · Bakery	1136 E Borgfeld Dr #101	open
Lobo Provisions	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	27532 Old Blanco Rd	open
Lulu's Frozen Yogurt Llc	Dessert	Dessert	26108 Overlook Pkwy	open
Mario's of NYC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	26610 US Highway 281 N	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	26523 N Us Hwy 281	open
Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	1304 W Borgfeld Dr	open
Nicos Pizzeria	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · Sandwiches · Pizza	25020 Blanco Rd Ste 130	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	26210 Canyon Golf Rd	open
Rebecca Creek Whiskey	Winery / distillery / taproom		26605 Bulverde Rd	open
San Antonio Treat Factory	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	American	Overlook Parkway	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	26116 Overlook Parkway Bldg #1	open
Spechts Texas	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	112 W Specht Rd	open
SUBWAY	Other	Sandwiches	25020 Blanco Rd Ste 100	open
Sugar Clouds Cotton Candy	Dessert	Dessert	26111 Kingbird Cove	open
Taquitos Tres Maria's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	668 E Borgfeld Dr	open
Texas Winers	Bar		26108 Overlook Pkwy Ste 1100	open
The Lookout Coffee and Community	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	26108 Overlook Pkwy	open
The Smoothie Truck	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		1234 SA Rd	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers · American	26510 US HIGHWAY 281 N	open
Whataburger	Quick service		26510 US Highway 281 N	open
Wild West Burgers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1304 Borgfeld Dr Ste 600	open
Crossroads Bakery And Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)		26605 Bulverde Rd	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	4	3	2	1	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	8	6	4	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	13	13	5	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	11	11	3	5	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	12	4	7	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	15	5	9	1	2	NAICS2012
2017	22	22	4	15	3	—	NAICS2017
2018	23	23	4	14	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	18	5	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	22	22	6	11	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	25	23	7	11	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	27	23	5	12	6	—	NAICS2022
2023	29	25	6	13	6	3	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78260. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78258	4.4 mi	145	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.