BMIE Market 78264

Bexar County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	11,841 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,036 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,092 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±746 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,339 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,206 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$54,409 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,696 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,265 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±324 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$163,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±8,977 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	70.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	9 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78264
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	4.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+350.0% DERIVED: 1997 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	11 (range 8–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.75) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	52 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	79 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78264. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.75, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	51.9	52	40%	+20.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.5	70	35%	+24.7
Market Momentum Score	79.3	79	25%	+19.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 52 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	11,841	73	40%	+29.3
Median household income (ACS)	54,409	21	40%	+8.3
Households (ACS)	4,092	71	20%	+14.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.6	82	25%	+20.5
Population (ACS)	11,841	73	20%	+14.6
Median household income (ACS)	54,409	21	20%	+4.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	30%	+26.7
20-year restaurant growth	125	87	20%	+17.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

Mexican 10 · American 5 · Bakery 4 · BBQ 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Seafood 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 21 · Quick service 9 · Bar 6 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Food truck 3 · Dessert 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A&G Kocina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	24153 U.S. 281 S.	open
Alondras De Jalisco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	505 S Loop 1604 E	open
Bill Miller Bar-B-Q	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	20135 Interstate 37S	open
Bill Miller BBQ Bill Miller Bar-B-Q	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	3939 Rockport Rd	open
Churros y Papas El Rey	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17020 TX-16	open
Cinnabon Cinnabon	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	4105 S Loop 1604 E	open
County Line Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2275 Old Pleasanton Rd	open
Coyote Crossing Saloon	Bar		23285 Mathis Rd	open
Dario's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	15410 Triangle Ste 105b	open
El Mercado Food Park	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	23011 Hickory Pass	open
El Taquerito	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	24153 US-281	open
El Torito Meat Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	505 S Loop 1604 E	open
Five Guys	Quick service		20811 Us Highway 281 S Ste 426	open
Hickory Hollow Poa	Bar	BBQ	23811 Blackjack Bnd	open
Home Plate Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		105 Old Pleasanton Rd	open
I37 & Loop 1604 Whataburger	Quick service		4125 S LOOP 1604 E	open
Iris’ Garden	Bar · Casual dining		17020 TX-16	open
La CabaÃ±a Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	23425 US-281	open
La Fonda Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	15415 Applewhite Rd	open
Las Coronas Bar	Bar		1925 S Loop 1604 E	open
Los Primos Tacos Puebla	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	17020 State Highway 16 S	open
M&M Delicakes	Bakery	Bakery	19851 Applewhite Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		20203 Ih 37 S	open
Moraima's Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	24430 US-281	open
OandR bbq	Food truck		23290 Mathis Rd	open
Red Velvet Cafe & Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2275 Old Pleasanton Rd	open
Shady Oaks Tavern	Bar		22115 US Highway 281 S	open
Sizzle sea Island	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Seafood	1925 S Loop 1604 E	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	4039 S Loop 1604 E	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	15511 Applewhite Road Ste 105	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4105 S Loop 1604 E	open
Taco Mobil	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	20502 US-281	open
Taco-Fil-A	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24935 US Highway 281 S	open
Tacos Quesadillas y Algo Mas	Food truck	Mexican	23115 Hickory Pass	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	4125 S LOOP 1604 E	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1995	1	—	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	3	—	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	4	2	1	1	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	4	2	2	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	3	1	1	—	—	2	NAICS1997
2002	5	3	2	1	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2005	6	4	3	1	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	6	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	3	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2008	6	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	5	3	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	6	4	2	2	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	8	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	10	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	12	9	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78264. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.