BMIE Market 78384

Duval County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	5,747 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±725 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,610 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±283 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	6,640 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,591 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$47,603 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,333 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	33.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$764 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±541 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$78,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±29,622 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	591.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	6 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78384
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-14.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-25.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	-14.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.28) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	37 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	41 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	45 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	21 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78384. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.28, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	41.4	41	40%	+16.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	44.9	45	35%	+15.7
Market Momentum Score	20.8	21	25%	+5.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 41 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	5,747	63	40%	+25.1
Median household income (ACS)	47,603	12	40%	+4.9
Households (ACS)	1,610	57	20%	+11.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 45 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.4	71	25%	+17.6
Population (ACS)	5,747	63	20%	+12.5
Median household income (ACS)	47,603	12	20%	+2.4

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 21 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-14.3	16	50%	+7.9
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	-25	12	20%	+2.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

Mexican 9 · American 6 · Bakery 6 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 4 · Juice / smoothies 3 · BBQ 2 · Coffee 2 · Chicken / wings 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 15 · Quick service 9 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 6 · Bar 5 · Casual dining 5 · Food truck 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Café 1 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Adams Roadrunners Coffee Shop	Bakery · Coffee shop	Bakery · Coffee · American	307 W Gravis Ave	open
Agape - Tacos & Gorditas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	310 Collins Ave	open
Bakery 44	Bakery	Bakery	1024 Highway 44	open
Bone Chiller Snow Cones	Dessert · Food truck	Dessert	704 E Gravis Ave	open
Cadena's Snack Shack	Dessert · Quick service · Juice, smoothie, tea	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Juice / smoothies	101 W Gravis St	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	602 E. Gravis Avenue	open
D&J’s Cocina y Cantina	Restaurant (service type not stated)		111 Victoria St	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	604 E Gravis St 604 E Gravis St	open
Donut Palace The Donut Palace San Diego TX	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	607 E Gravis Ave	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		604 E Gravis St	open
El Galisiense	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	501 E Gravis Ave	open
El Mesquital Outdoor Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		1489 TX-44	open
Gloria's Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	830 W Gravis St	open
Gonzalez tacos and BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · BBQ	511 E Theodora St	open
Henry's Place	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	403 W Luby Ave	open
Irie Foods	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	304 S Travis St	open
J Rod's Catering	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	108 W Gravis Ave	open
Jerry's Drive In & Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	111 S Victoria St	open
La Superior Urrutia's Bakery	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Bakery	210 W Gravis St	open
Luchazie General Store & Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	1023 TX-44	open
Papi's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	713 S Tovar St	open
RealTime BBQ & Catering Co.	Catering	BBQ · American	406 W Dix Ave	open
Redefining Nutrition Nutritional Smoothie Café & More	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	102 W Collins Ave	open
Rockin M Savory Spot LLC	Food truck		502 E Luby Ave	open
Rusty Rooster’s Icehouse	Bar		207 E King Ave	open
Silva Snowcones	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	603 E Gravis St	open
Smoothlie Fit 2	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	101 Collins Ave	open
South Texas Sno Bees	Dessert · Food truck	Ice cream / frozen desserts	W 2nd St	open
Spankys Sports Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining		111 Victoria St	open
Taqueria El Jalisiense	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	501 E Gravis Ave	open
Taste of Mexico in San Diego	Bakery	Bakery	400 W St Charles Ave	open
Tex-Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	210 N Benavides St	open
The Daquri Shak	Bar		813 E Gravis Ave	open
Trevino's Breakfast tacos, lunch, & Dinner	Food truck · Quick service	Mexican	510 S Travis St	open
Vfw Hall	Quick service · Bar		300 King Ave	open
Yvonne's Sweet Treats	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	103 S Perez St	open
Jrod1111 Enterprises Llc Dba Jrod's Drive In & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		108 W Gravis St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	9	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	8	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	8	8	5	3	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	8	5	3	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	11	9	2	7	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	4	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	8	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	2	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	12	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	11	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	6	—	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	7	3	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	7	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	8	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78384. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.