BMIE Market 78612

Bastrop County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	19,799 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,189 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,850 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±568 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,457 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,274 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$95,496 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,349 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,481 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±214 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$309,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,413 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	99.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	5 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78612
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-16.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+150.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+66.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.23) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	65 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	69 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	36 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78612. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.23, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	78.9	79	40%	+31.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	68.6	69	35%	+24.0
Market Momentum Score	35.6	36	25%	+8.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	19,799	81	40%	+32.5
Median household income (ACS)	95,496	78	40%	+31.1
Households (ACS)	5,850	77	20%	+15.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 69 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	35%	+12.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.5	98	25%	+24.6
Population (ACS)	19,799	81	20%	+16.3
Median household income (ACS)	95,496	78	20%	+15.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 36 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-16.7	15	50%	+7.3
10-year restaurant growth	0	35	30%	+10.5
20-year restaurant growth	150	89	20%	+17.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (51)

By cuisine

Mexican 11 · American 9 · BBQ 5 · Coffee 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Dessert 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Italian 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 28 · Bar 10 · Food truck 6 · Dessert 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 5 · Quick service 5 · Café 4 · Casual dining 4 · Coffee shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alexander's Bar B-Q	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	106 FM535	open
Amazin Fireworks	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	1667 State Highway 71 W	open
Ashley's Shaved Ice	Dessert	Dessert	626 State Highway 21 W	open
Benny's Texas Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1688 State Highway 71 W	open
Berdoll Pecan Candy & Gift Company	Dessert · Bakery	Bakery	2626 State Highway 71 W	open
Berry Cool Snow Cones	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Hot dogs	1667 State Highway 71 W	open
Blue's Brews and Chews	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	1586 State Highway 71 W	open
Brewers Smokehouse Bbq & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1688 State Highway 71 W	open
Carnitas El Guero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	104 Enchanted Cv	open
Cedar Creek Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	107 Oak Forest Dr	open
Eden's Cove Farm	Restaurant (service type not stated)		157 Bahia Ln	open
El Corral Bar 1239 FM 20 Rockne El Corral	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1239 FM-20	open
ElReyno Taquerias	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood		open
Haley Dais Cafe	Café	Coffee	426 State Highway 21 W	open
Hell's Half Acre	Bar		2317 State Highway 71 W	open
Herbalife Nutrition Level Up Ur Fitness Teas and Shakes	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	877 TX-21	open
Ironwood Grill & Pub	Bar		5496 State Highway 71 E	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		111 W State Highway 21	open
Jalisco's Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	1158 TX-21	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	877 Hwy 21 W	open
La H comida hondureña y más	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	5599 FM535	open
La Nortena ATX Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	1158 State Highway 21 W	open
Leo's Italian Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	887 TX-21	open
Little Mac's Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	140 FM1209	open
Love Shack Bastrop	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1567 State Highway 71 W	open
Major Neighbors Grill	Casual dining · Bar		575 Hyatt Lost Pines Rd	open
Marigold's Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	873 State Highway 21 W	open
Mariscos Guadalupe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Mexican · Breakfast	1209 TX-21	open
Maude's bar & terrace	Dessert · Casual dining · Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	575 Hyatt Lost Pines Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2850 TX-71	open
Mexitacos Doña Ofe “Food Truck”	Food truck	Mexican	5599 FM-535	open
Mi Barrio Taqueria	Food truck	Mexican	2061 State Hwy 71	open
Old Buck's Place	Bar		575 Hyatt Lost Pines Rd	open
Old Coyote Cafe	Café	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Coffee	142 Northside Ln	open
Organic Coffee Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		505 State Highway 21 W	open
Peggy's	Bar		114 Stoney Brook Dr	open
Pud’s Cup Of Mud	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1158 TX-21	open
Scribes Club	Bar		575 Hyatt Lost Pines Rd	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	American	1481 Highway 71 West	open
Southern Roots Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	426 State Highway 21 W	open
Stacked Sliders	Quick service	Burgers · Sandwiches	2061 State Highway 71 W	open
Stories- Ranch Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	575 Hyatt Lost Pines Rd	open
Sushi by Scratch Restaurants: Cedar Creek Sushi By Scratch Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	575 Hyatt Lost Pines Rd	open
Tacos Maxis	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1083 Farm to Market Rd 812	open
Taqueria sanjuan Huetamo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1865 FM 812	open
Taqueria “El Bombón”	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	175 FM 1209	open
The Texas Roadstand	Restaurant (service type not stated)		962 State Highway 21 W	open
Turkey Leg Nation	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	6759 Pearce Ln	open
Up A Creek	Bar		1374 State Highway 21 W	open
Vanessa’s Sweets	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	262 Wright Dr	open
White Box Crispy Chicken Cedar Creek	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	426-A TX-21	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	2	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	5	4	4	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	2	—	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	5	4	3	1	—	1	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	5	5	4	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	8	6	2	4	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	6	5	2	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	6	5	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78612. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.