BMIE Market 78616

Caldwell County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,683 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,517 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	3,188 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±410 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,092 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,573 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$64,715 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,979 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	30.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,362 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±92 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$211,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±31,483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	118.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78616
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2015, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	2 (range 1–4) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 1994–2023 (10 points, +0.1 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	58 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	72 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?
Market Momentum Score	38 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78616. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 1994–2023, +0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	57.6	58	40%	+23.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	71.5	72	35%	+25.0
Market Momentum Score	37.8	38	25%	+9.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 58 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,683	72	40%	+28.7
Median household income (ACS)	64,715	38	40%	+15.3
Households (ACS)	3,188	68	20%	+13.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 72 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.8	98	25%	+37.6
Population (ACS)	10,683	72	20%	+22.1
Median household income (ACS)	64,715	38	20%	+11.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 38 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+29.8
20-year restaurant growth	0	28	20%	+7.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (22)

By cuisine

Mexican 7 · American 3 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 6 · Food truck 3 · Casual dining 2 · Dessert 2 · Bakery 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Antojitos Mexicanos Los Jarochos #2	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	100 Salvation Ln	open
Brother's Hibachi	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 Salvation Ln	open
CJ's Tacos #3 Dale	Food truck	Mexican	9749 FM1854	open
El fogon de mimis	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	20045 Camino Real	open
El Gallito Bar	Bar		20045 Camino Real	open
Ell-Is-On Place Sports Bar	Bar			open
Enter 49	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	3135 Easton Tpke	open
Jaguar Brew Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2554 TX-21	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2287 FM 812	open
La Llamarada	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	100 Salvation Ln	open
La Nena Taqueria y Mucho Mas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	8779 FM1854	open
La Taqueria Los MiniTacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	116 Spotted Horse Trail	open
Mi Ranchito El Reyno Sport Bar and Restaurante	Bar		580 Old San Antonio Rd	open
micheladas mariscos y mas	Food truck		13593 FM-1854	open
Rancho El Padrino	Food truck		19100 Camino Real	open
SPORT BAR	Bar		1570 FM-1854	open
Sumtin Marbelous Smoke Train	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	1570 FM1854	open
Sweet E's	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1990 Tumbleweed Trail	open
Taqueria Guerrero	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13257 FM-1854	open
The Country Patio	Casual dining · Bar	American · Burgers	8940 FM1854	open
Whizzerville Hall	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	6320 FM713	open
Yoyo's antojitos mexicanos	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	10 Spotted Horse Trail	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
2015	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	3	—	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	4	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78616. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.