BMIE Market 78621

Bastrop County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,411 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,687 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,175 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±770 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,659 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,955 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,534 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,387 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±107 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$320,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15,235 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	177.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	28 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78621
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+7.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+115.4% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	32 (range 28–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.63) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78621. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.63, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.9	85	40%	+33.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82.5	82	35%	+28.9
Market Momentum Score	69.6	70	25%	+17.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,411	89	40%	+35.7
Median household income (ACS)	98,534	80	40%	+32.0
Households (ACS)	10,175	86	20%	+17.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	55.6	85	35%	+29.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	9.2	75	25%	+18.8
Population (ACS)	30,411	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	98,534	80	20%	+16.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	7.7	65	50%	+32.4
10-year restaurant growth	55.6	85	30%	+25.6
20-year restaurant growth	40	58	20%	+11.7

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (105)

By cuisine

Mexican 21 · American 15 · Latin American (other) 10 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 9 · BBQ 6 · Chicken / wings 6 · Burgers 5 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 5 · Coffee 5 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Juice / smoothies 4 · Pizza 4 · Asian 3 · Chinese 3 · Bakery 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Mediterranean 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 66 · Quick service 29 · Bar 16 · Casual dining 12 · Food truck 11 · Coffee shop 5 · Dessert 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Catering 1 · Delivery-focused 1 · Fast casual 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
ALOVE LUPITA CEVICHE	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Latin American (other)	101 S Main St	open
Angel’s China House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	202 S Ave C	open
Atomic Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Healthy / salads / bowls · Juice / smoothies	910 Lee Dildy Blvd	open
Aviator Pizza & Brew Company Aviator Pizza & Brew Company	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Pizza	18810 Highway 290 E	open
Bob's Blue Collar Tavern	Bar		18810 Highway 290 E	open
Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1070 E Highway 290	open
Chaffles512	Food truck		118 Old Sayers Rd	open
Chemn Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Coffee	114 N Main St	open
Cielo Water	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other		2142 FM-1704	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1126 Hwy 290 1126 Hwy 290	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	910 Lee Dildy Blvd	open
Donnie's Greenspace	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	121 Zaragoza St	open
Dos Amigos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	612 S Ave C	open
Double F Bar B Que	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	101 S Main St	open
Double F.F. Tacos	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		1126 Hwy 290	open
El chaval kitchen	Food truck	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	101 S Main St	open
El gallito bar	Bar		112 S Ave C	open
El Maguey Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	111 S Main St	open
El saborcito potosino	Food truck		16824 County Line Rd	open
Elgin Donuts	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	199 US-290	open
Elgin Meadery	Winery / distillery / taproom		109 Central Ave Ste A	open
Elgin Travel Center & Food Court	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Healthy / salads / bowls	962 Highway 290 E	open
Eva Mae's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	313 N Main St	open
Firewild On Main	Casual dining · Bar	American	201 N Main St	open
Frierson bar b que	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	BBQ	115 S Avenue C	open
Golden Chick	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		407 E US Highway 290	open
Golden Chick Golden Chick	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	407 US-290	open
Hakuna Matata Fruit and Snacks	Food truck · Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	101 S Main St	open
Hong Kong Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Vietnamese · Asian	206 US-290	open
Instant bourbons restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		274 Raintree Ln	open
Jackson Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	313 N Main St	open
Jackson Soul	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Catering	Cajun, Creole, Southern	101 S Main St	open
Jalisco Mexican Restaurant Jalisco’s Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	244 US-290	open
Jalisco's Mexican Restaurant Elgin,Tx	Restaurant (service type not stated)		244 US-290 E	open
Joseph's Steak House Joseph's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	19 N Main St.	open
KFC KFC	Quick service		18619 Hwy 290 East	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	18619 Highway 290	open
Krab Kingz	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	300 US-290 W	open
Krazy Horse Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		103 N Main St	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service		962 US 290	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	962 US 290	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	18810 E Hwy 290	open
La Autentica De Tierra Caliente	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	21515 Ann Showers Dr	open
La Mula Azul - Mexican Cuisine	Quick service		107 Wilderness Trl	open
La Parrillada	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex	109 Hwy 290 Frontage Rd	open
Laredo Taco Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		201 US 290	open
Las Salsas Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	300 US-290	open
Liberty Tree Tavern	Bar		117 N Main St	open
Lightnin' Bar	Bar · Casual dining		109 Central Ave	open
Lil Mexican Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	105 Terri Trl	open
Little Caesars Little Caesars	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Italian	910 Lee Dildy Blvd Ste 275	open
Lo-Fi Coffee House & Studio	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	Central Ave	open
Long John Silver's Long John Silver's	Quick service		18619 Hwy 290 East	open
Lucy's Kitchen Lucy's Kitchen	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	106 Depot St	open
Luigis Italian Resturant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	103 N Main St	open
Mando's Bar	Bar		112 S Avenue C	open
MARSEONI - Authentic Mediterranean BBQ restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · BBQ	118A Sayers Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	220 Hwy 290	open
Meyer's Elgin Smokehouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	188 US-290	open
Meyer's Sausage Company, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		600 S Main St	open
Millie's on Main	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		212 N Main St	open
Morelia's Mexican Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	197 US-290 W	open
NAPOLIS ITALIAN BISTRO	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	103 N Main St	open
Off The Rails Sweets and Treats	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts · Bakery	24 N Main St	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	1338 West Us 290	open
Paola la Caballita	Food truck · Quick service · Bar	Mexican · Chicken / wings	115 S Avenue C	open
Paradise Bar & Grill	Bar		207 S Avenue C Ste B	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service	Pizza · Italian	204 W. US 290 Bastrop	open
Pollos asados el michoacano en elgin tx	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1132 Highway 290 E	open
Pollos Asados El Norteno	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Chicken / wings · American	511 N Main St	open
Pollos El Michoacano	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	118 Sayers Rd	open
Quiznos	Restaurant (service type not stated)		962 Highway 290 E	open
Restaurant Guadalajara	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1113 US-290	open
Schlotzsky's Deli Schlotzsky's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	1131 US-290	open
Smash Daddies	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Burgers	121 Anderson Dr	open
Smith's Backyard BBQ & Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	BBQ		open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1134 Highway 290	open
Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	1134 Highway 290 E	open
Southside Market and Bar-B-Q Southside Market	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	1212 Highway 290 E	open
Southside Market and Barbeque Southside Market & Barbeque	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	1212 Highway 290 W	open
Speedy Stop	Quick service		200 W US Highway 290	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	1380 US-290 E	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1380 US-290	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	240 Hwy 290	open
Super Tacos Bros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	115 Willie May Way	open
Taco Bell	Quick service		210 Highway 290 W	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1090 Highway 290 W	open
TACORREAL LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	105 Terri Trail	open
Tacos Calentanos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	300 Hwy 290 East	open
Taqueria Azteca De Oro	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	404 S Main St	open
Taqueria Mi Lindo Michoacan	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	417 State Hwy 95	open
Taqueria Y Restaurant Guadalajara	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1113 Highway 290 E	open
Taquitos El Tapatio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	327 US-290	open
The Owl Wine Bar	Bar		106 N Main St	open
The Taco Stop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	310 US-290	open
The Why Knot	Bar		353 Watersedge Terrace Dr	open
Thirdcoast Wings & Daiquiris	Casual dining · Bar	American	207 S Ave C	open
Uncle Pocko's Kitchen and Smoke	Food truck		741 US-290 E	open
Valentina's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American · Spanish / tapas	115 S Ave C	open
Western Fuel Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	103 W 1st St	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	1392 W Us Highway 290	open
White Box Chicken IV, Elgin	Quick service		300 US-290 W	open
Yo Place	Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert	Juice / smoothies · Ice cream / frozen desserts	111 S Avenue C	open
D2 Sports Bar And Grill	Bar		202 S Avenue C	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	14	12	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	15	13	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	14	13	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	18	17	9	8	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	18	17	9	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	16	15	8	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	20	19	11	8	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	21	20	10	10	—	1	NAICS2002
2004	24	21	10	11	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	20	18	8	10	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	20	20	10	10	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	20	20	12	8	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	21	20	9	10	1	1	NAICS2007
2009	21	21	11	7	3	—	NAICS2007
2010	19	19	9	8	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	20	9	9	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	18	10	7	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	19	18	11	6	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	26	22	13	8	1	1	NAICS2012
2015	26	22	11	9	2	1	NAICS2012
2016	21	19	10	9	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	28	27	13	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	28	26	12	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	27	24	11	13	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	29	27	13	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	28	25	12	12	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	31	26	12	12	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	38	28	11	12	5	4	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78621. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.