BMIE Market 78655

Caldwell County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	3,730 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±758 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	1,388 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±256 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	2,739 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	1,100 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$55,952 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,708 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	44.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±15 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,093 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±113 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$269,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±75,650 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	28.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	3 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78655
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+200.0% DERIVED: 2011 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	4 (range 2–7) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2012–2023 (11 points, +0.0 per year, r² 0.02) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	48 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	43 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	65 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	35 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78655. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2012–2023, +0.0 restaurants per year, r² 0.02, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 48 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	42.5	43	40%	+17.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	64.5	65	35%	+22.6
Market Momentum Score	35.2	35	25%	+8.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 43 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	3,730	56	40%	+22.3
Median household income (ACS)	55,952	23	40%	+9.2
Households (ACS)	1,388	55	20%	+11.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 65 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	35%	+28.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	80	25%	+20.0
Population (ACS)	3,730	56	20%	+11.2
Median household income (ACS)	55,952	23	20%	+4.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 35 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-40	7	50%	+4.4
10-year restaurant growth	50	82	30%	+30.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (8)

By cuisine

Bakery 2 · Mexican 2 · American 1 · Burgers 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 4 · Bar 3 · Bakery 2 · Casual dining 2 · Café 1 · Dessert 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Doria's Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	18229 San Marcos Hwy	open
Duett's Texas Club	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	420 Main St	open
El Taco Feliz	Quick service	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	408 Lockhart St	open
Hays County Burgers & Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	17033 San Marcos Highway	open
Hermanos Taqueria & Bakery	Bakery	Mexican · Bakery	1002 NW River Rd	open
Martindale River Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Coffee	404 Main St	open
Orloff	Bar		632 NW River Rd	open
Texas Shades Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		17050 San Marcos Hwy	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2009	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	3	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2012
2018	5	5	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	4	4	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	3	3	—	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78655. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
78670	3.6 mi	1	2010
78622	4.1 mi	1	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.