BMIE Market 78957

Bastrop County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	10,543 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±826 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,198 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±390 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,067 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,354 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$69,149 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,580 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	41.8 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,383 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±357 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$259,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,131 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	177.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 78957
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+0.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+10.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+22.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+120.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	15 (range 12–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.40) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	61 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	46 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 78957. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.40, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.2	61	40%	+24.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60.0	60	35%	+21.0
Market Momentum Score	46.5	46	25%	+11.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 61 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	10,543	72	40%	+28.6
Median household income (ACS)	69,149	46	40%	+18.2
Households (ACS)	4,198	72	20%	+14.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	35%	+18.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	10.4	71	25%	+17.7
Population (ACS)	10,543	72	20%	+14.3
Median household income (ACS)	69,149	46	20%	+9.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 46 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	0	42	50%	+20.9
10-year restaurant growth	10	54	30%	+16.2
20-year restaurant growth	22.2	47	20%	+9.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (48)

By cuisine

American 11 · Coffee 8 · BBQ 6 · Mexican 5 · Bakery 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Pizza 2 · Burgers 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Seafood 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Steakhouse 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 11 · Café 7 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Food truck 4 · Quick service 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Dessert 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Abbey's Tavern & Grill	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		205 N 3rd St	open
All's Well Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	219 Johns Rd	open
Auzell's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Cajun, Creole, Southern	1500 NE Loop 230	open
Backdoor Cafe	Café	Coffee	Main St	open
Bastrop El Patron Food Truck	Food truck	Mexican	109 Alum Creek Rd	open
Bistro 71	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · American	1201 Hill Rd	open
Blackflag Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	1405 NE Loop 230	open
Bubby's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	320 N W Loop 230	open
Catch Me If You Can Snowcones	Quick service · Food truck	American	301 NW 3rd St	open
Charlies Bar	Bar		1200 NE Loop 230	open
Chief Firewood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ		open
Coach Q's Social Club	Bar		301-303 Main St	open
Comfort Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	111 NW 1st St	open
Culper Ring Distillery	Winery / distillery / taproom		204 Romona St	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1307 E Loop 230	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1100 Loop Rd, #230 # 230	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		1307 NE Loop 230	open
El Mexicano Grill El Mexicano Grill & Cantina #2	Casual dining · Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	1307 N W Loop 230	open
Frontier Cellars	Winery / distillery / taproom		157 Hector Rd	open
Honey's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	109 NE 2nd St	open
Hope Floats Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Coffee	109 NW 2nd St	open
Huebels	Bar		207 NW 2nd St	open
Java Junkies	Coffee shop	Coffee	111 NW 1st St	open
Jessica Nelson	Bakery	Bakery	709 Highway 71 W	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1501 NE Loop 230	open
La Cabana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	719 State Hwy 71	open
Marilyn n Rita's Cafe	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee	802 Colorado Dr	open
Murphy's Steakhouse - Winchester, Tx	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse		open
Pocket's Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	205 Fawcett St	open
Quinto Patio	Bar	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican	114 NE 2nd St	open
Renegade Crawfish Co	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · BBQ	270 State Hwy 95	open
Smithville Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	307 Royston St	open
Smithville Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		661 N W Loop 230	open
Smithville Coffee House	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	108 NE 2nd St	open
Smithville Pecan Company	Bakery	American · Bakery	591 Loop 230 W	open
Smithville Sudwerks	Brewery / taproom		117 Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1509 Dorothy Nichols Ln	open
Super Donuts Super Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	1403 N W Loop 230	open
Tacos Yo Soy	Food truck	Mexican	709 State Hwy 71	open
The Birdsong Bar & Patio	Bar · Casual dining		1200 N W Loop 230	open
The End Up	Bar		205 NE Loop 230	open
The Front Room Wine Bar	Bar	Spanish / tapas	116 Main St	open
The Olde World Bakery and Cafe	Bakery · Café	Bakery · Coffee · American	112 Main St	open
Word of Mouth BBQ	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	304 Miller St	open
Yethzi's Sweet Fruit	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies	200 N W Loop 230	open
Your Mom's	Juice, smoothie, tea	American · Juice / smoothies · Burgers	109 NW 2nd St	open
Zimmerhanzel's Bar-B-Que	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	307 Royston St	open
The Blazer Bar And Grill	Bar		303 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	6	5	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	9	8	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	11	10	5	2	3	1	NAICS1997
1999	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	10	9	6	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	9	8	5	2	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	9	8	6	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	11	9	5	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	10	8	4	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	12	9	4	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	12	9	4	4	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	12	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2010	10	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	14	9	3	5	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	14	10	4	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2014	14	8	3	5	—	2	NAICS2012
2015	12	7	3	4	—	2	NAICS2012
2016	17	11	4	5	2	2	NAICS2012
2017	15	10	5	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2018	16	11	6	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2019	18	13	7	5	—	3	NAICS2017
2020	18	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	11	6	4	—	3	NAICS2017
2022	21	12	7	4	—	3	NAICS2022
2023	17	11	6	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 78957. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.