BMIE Market 80540

Boulder County, Colorado · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	4,642 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±715 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	2,025 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±379 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	4,461 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	2,531 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$139,521 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,037 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	48.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,112 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±362 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$795,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±69,820 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	152.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 80540
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	35.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-31.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-23.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+30.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	9 (range 6–13) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.5 per year, r² 0.51) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	47 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	40 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	14 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 80540. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.51, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Colorado and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 390, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 47 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	73.8	74	40%	+29.5
Restaurant Opportunity Score	39.8	40	35%	+13.9
Market Momentum Score	13.7	14	25%	+3.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	4,642	59	40%	+23.7
Median household income (ACS)	139,521	95	40%	+37.9
Households (ACS)	2,025	61	20%	+12.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 40 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-31.6	10	35%	+3.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	28.0	22	25%	+5.6
Population (ACS)	4,642	59	20%	+11.8
Median household income (ACS)	139,521	95	20%	+19.0

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 14 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-13.3	16	50%	+8.2
10-year restaurant growth	-31.6	10	30%	+3.0
20-year restaurant growth	-23.5	13	20%	+2.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 4 · Bakery 4 · Asian 2 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mexican 2 · BBQ 1 · Chinese 1 · Coffee 1 · German / Eastern European 1 · Indian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 9 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 4 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2 · Catering 1 · Coffee shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Ax & Oar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	160 Main St	open
Barking Dog Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	431a Main St	open
Button Rock Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	405B Main St.	open
Ciatano Winery	Winery / distillery / taproom		16858 N Saint Vrain Dr	open
Honorable Harvest Tea & Apothecary	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	304 Main St	open
Indian Bites Restaurant & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Indian	432 Main St	open
Julie's Thai Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	138 E Main St	open
La Mariposa Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	112 E Main St	open
Let It Bee Honey & More Store	Dessert		4689 Ute Hwy	open
Local Eat and Drink	Restaurant (service type not stated)		432 Main St	open
Lyons Dairy Bar	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert · Burgers	138 E Main St	open
Lyons Dairy Bar	Dessert	Dessert	2 E Main St	open
Lyons Fork	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	450 Main St	open
MainStage Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar		450 Main St	open
Marigold Lyons	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	405 Main St B	open
Mojo Taqueria Lyons	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	216 Main St	open
Moxie Mercantile	Bakery	Bakery	355 Main St	open
Oskar Blues Grill & Brew Oskar Blues Grill & Brew Lyons	Casual dining · Brewery / taproom · Bar		303 Main St	open
Sisters Pantry	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	507 W Main St	open
Smokin' Dave's BBQ - Lyons Smokin' Dave's BBQ - Denver	Casual dining · Bar	BBQ · American	228 E Main St	open
SNACK soda fountain	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	400 Main St	open
Spirit Hound Distillers	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		4196 Ute Hwy	open
The Colorado Cherry Company	Bakery	Bakery	2311 North Saint Vrain Drive	open
The Prickly Pear	Restaurant (service type not stated)		160 E Main St	open
The Quarry At Lyons	Bar		160 Main St	open
The Rock Garden	Bar		338 Main St	open
The Stone Cup	Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee · American	442 High St	open
The Wayback Bar	Bar		430 Main St	open
Villa Tatra	Catering	German / Eastern European	729 Pinewood Dr	open
Pizza Bar 66	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	430 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	8	8	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	12	12	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	14	13	10	3	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	15	14	10	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2000	13	12	10	1	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	15	14	10	1	3	1	NAICS1997
2002	15	14	11	1	2	1	NAICS1997
2003	17	17	12	1	4	—	NAICS2002
2004	17	17	13	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2005	16	16	12	1	3	—	NAICS2002
2006	19	19	13	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2007	18	18	15	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	17	12	2	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	16	13	1	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	16	12	1	3	—	NAICS2007
2011	16	16	11	1	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	17	17	13	—	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	19	13	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	16	15	12	—	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	17	17	13	—	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	14	14	11	—	3	—	NAICS2012
2017	14	14	10	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	15	10	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	11	8	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	16	15	11	—	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	10	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 80540. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.