BMIE Market 83644

Canyon County, Idaho · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,293 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,263 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,437 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±424 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	9,976 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,636 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$97,293 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,791 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,073 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±215 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$456,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±36,532 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	45.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 83644
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	8.0 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+8.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+62.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+160.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+225.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–19) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.60) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	79 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	82 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 83644. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.60, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Idaho and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 192, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.9	78	40%	+31.2
Restaurant Opportunity Score	81.8	82	35%	+28.6
Market Momentum Score	76.7	77	25%	+19.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,293	78	40%	+31.2
Median household income (ACS)	97,293	79	40%	+31.7
Households (ACS)	5,437	76	20%	+15.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 82 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	35%	+30.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	8.0	80	25%	+20.1
Population (ACS)	16,293	78	20%	+15.6
Median household income (ACS)	97,293	79	20%	+15.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	8.3	66	50%	+32.8
10-year restaurant growth	62.5	87	30%	+26.0
20-year restaurant growth	160	90	20%	+17.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 5 · Mexican 5 · Dessert 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Italian 3 · Pizza 3 · Bakery 2 · Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Quick service 7 · Dessert 6 · Bar 5 · Bakery 4 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Coffee shop 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
208 BurgerQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · BBQ · American	308 W Main St	open
Burnt Lemon Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	509 S Middleton Rd Ste 106	open
Casa Mexico	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	517 S Middleton Rd	open
Castumers	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Mexican	103 W Main St	open
Cinnabon Maverik - Middleton Cinnabon	Quick service		1457 West Main Street	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	8976 New Castle Dr	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	DQ Grill & Chill Restaurant #71168 - Middleton, ID 884 Bozic St	open
Dans Donuts Deli & Desserts	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Dessert	Dessert · Sandwiches	7 S Hawthorne Ave	open
El Senor Pollo Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Chicken / wings	509 S Middleton Rd #106	open
Ferraro's Apizza	Food truck	Italian · Pizza	23887 Tyler Ln	open
Garbonzo's Pizza Middleton	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	250 E Main St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		712 W. Main Street	open
Kravz	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	318 W Main St	open
Middleton Espresso Cafe	Coffee shop · Quick service · Café	Coffee	533 S Middleton Rd	open
Middleton’s Dugout Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3 N Dewey Ave	open
Our Place Saloon	Bar			open
Poppi's Take 'n Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	525 S Middleton Rd	open
Scotties Donuts Middleton	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Casual dining	Dessert · American	10 W Main St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	103 E Main St	open
Taco Time	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	7 E Main St	open
Tacos El Rancho	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	103 W Main St	open
The Bank Bar	Bar		21 N Dewey Ave	open
The Burger Den Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		308 W Main St	open
The Original Sunrise Cafe The Original Sunrise Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	200 E Main St	open
The Rustic Oven Co. - Bakery & Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	218 E Main St	open
The Vault 21 Club	Bar		21 N Dewey Ave	open
Tropical Sno Middleton	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	430 E Main St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	6	4	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	6	5	1	4	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	5	1	4	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	7	5	1	3	1	1	NAICS1997
2002	6	5	1	4	—	1	NAICS1997
2003	7	5	1	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	7	5	1	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	9	6	2	4	—	2	NAICS2002
2006	11	8	2	6	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	10	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2008	8	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	10	9	3	5	1	1	NAICS2012
2013	10	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	13	11	4	7	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	12	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2012
2016	14	13	3	7	3	1	NAICS2012
2017	13	11	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	15	12	4	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	12	5	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	18	14	6	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	13	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	16	13	5	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 83644. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.