BMIE Market 84040

Davis County, Utah · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	28,509 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,486 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,296 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±518 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,026 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,252 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,365 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,334 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,831 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±208 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$542,500 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±18,488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	24.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	20 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 84040
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	5.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+42.9% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+122.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+185.7% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	22 (range 19–25) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.6 per year, r² 0.63) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	86 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 84040. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.6 restaurants per year, r² 0.63, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Utah and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 191, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.0	89	40%	+35.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	84.5	85	35%	+29.6
Market Momentum Score	83.3	83	25%	+20.8

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	28,509	88	40%	+35.1
Median household income (ACS)	128,365	93	40%	+37.0
Households (ACS)	9,296	84	20%	+16.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	42.9	78	35%	+27.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	7.0	84	25%	+21.1
Population (ACS)	28,509	88	20%	+17.6
Median household income (ACS)	128,365	93	20%	+18.5

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+42.5
10-year restaurant growth	42.9	78	30%	+23.5
20-year restaurant growth	122.2	87	20%	+17.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (21)

By cuisine

Coffee 4 · Pizza 3 · American 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Bakery 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Japanese 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 9 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 3 · Bar 2 · Dessert 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Bakery 1 · Casual dining 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Beans & Brews Coffeehouse Beans & Brews Coffee House	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1422 E 3000 N	open
CherryBerry Yogurt Bar	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1330 Utah 193	open
Chinese Kitchen Layton Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1310 E Highway 193 Ste A4	open
Cutler's Cookies & Sandwiches	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	1290 UT-193	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	1142 UT-193	open
Florentine Gardens	Bar		2621 Oak Hills Dr	open
Food Truck El Nene Sammy	Food truck	Mexican · Latin American (other)		open
Grounds for Coffee Grounds For Coffee Harrison Blvd.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1480 US-89	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	1944 Woodland Park Dr	open
JNL PLUS CAFE, Inc.	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2501 E Gentile St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1376 E 3000 N	open
McDonald's	Quick service		2000 E Antelope Dr	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1330 E Highway 193	open
Par 5 Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2501 E Gentile St	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
S&b Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	1170 E Gentile St	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1170 E Gentile St	open
Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1142 E Hwy 193	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1180 E UT-193	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1344 E Hwy 193	open
Westside Pizza Westside Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1330 UT-193 Unit D9	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	5	4	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	8	8	3	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	9	9	3	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	9	9	4	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	10	10	5	5	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	9	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	11	11	3	7	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	7	7	—	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	9	2	6	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	11	11	2	6	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	8	8	1	5	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	10	2	6	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	13	12	3	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	11	10	1	5	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	11	2	5	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	14	3	7	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	13	1	9	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	16	14	1	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	19	16	3	10	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	13	—	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	15	—	11	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	16	14	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	17	15	—	11	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	23	19	—	13	3	—	NAICS2017
2022	22	18	—	15	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	24	20	—	16	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 84040. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
84041	4.6 mi	137	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.