BMIE Market 85085

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,458 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,722 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,468 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±628 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	17,517 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,618 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$128,984 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,713 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,944 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±99 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$669,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,196 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.1 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	60 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85085
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	16.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+22.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+39.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+5,900.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+2,900.0% DERIVED: 2002 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	68 (range 64–71) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.8 per year, r² 0.92) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	83 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85085. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.92, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91	91	40%	+36.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.3	73	35%	+25.7
Market Momentum Score	82.6	83	25%	+20.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,458	90	40%	+35.9
Median household income (ACS)	128,984	93	40%	+37.1
Households (ACS)	12,468	90	20%	+18.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	39.5	77	35%	+26.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	19.1	40	25%	+9.9
Population (ACS)	31,458	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	128,984	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	22.5	79	50%	+39.6
10-year restaurant growth	39.5	77	30%	+23.1
20-year restaurant growth	5,900	100	20%	+20.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (104)

By cuisine

American 21 · Dessert 10 · Bakery 9 · Mexican 9 · Burgers 8 · Sandwiches 8 · Coffee 7 · Pizza 7 · Asian 6 · Healthy / salads / bowls 6 · Italian 6 · Breakfast 5 · Juice / smoothies 5 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 5 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · BBQ 3 · Chinese 3 · Japanese 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Mediterranean 3 · Sushi 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Indian 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Greek 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Seafood 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 61 · Quick service 20 · Dessert 10 · Bakery 9 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 8 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 6 · Juice, smoothie, tea 6 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Fast casual 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Other 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
AC Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		25100 N 22nd Ln	open
Ah-So Sushi & Steak Ah-So Sushi & Steak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Steakhouse	2450 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Angry Crab Happy Valley Angry Crab Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern · Asian	2501 W Happy Valley Rd Bldg #48	open
Applebee's Neighborhood Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2501 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 48	open
Armando's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	711 E Carefree Hwy	open
Barro's Pizza Barro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2750 W Dove Valley Rd #140	open
Bento Box	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Bista's Deli & Market, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24825 N 16th Ave	open
Buffalo Wild Wings Buffalo Wild Wings	Bar · Casual dining	American	2510 West Happy Valley, Suite 1241 Ste. 1241	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	33100 N North Vly Pkwy	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	620 E Carefree Hwy	open
Cafe Rio Cafe Rio Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Cafe Zupas Cafe Zupas	Other · Fast casual · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	2510 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Carefree Beer Company	Brewery / taproom		515 E Carefree Hwy	open
Carefree Highway Cafe	Coffee shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Juice, smoothie, tea	Coffee · Juice / smoothies · Breakfast	711 E Carefree Hwy #109	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	2501 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 44	open
Carlos O'Brien's Mexican Restaurant Carlos O'Brien's Mexican Restaurant	Bar	Mexican	2501 W Happy Valley Rd Building #14	open
CAVA CAVA	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean	2222 W Happy Valley Road Suite 105	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks and Wings Charleys Cheesesteaks	Other	Sandwiches · Chicken / wings · American	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2575 W Jomax Rd	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2470 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1181	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		2975 W Dove Valley Rd	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	2501 W Happy Valley Rd, Ste 50-1260	open
Connolly's Sports Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2605 W Carefree Hwy	open
Courtyard Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		2029 W Whispering Wind Dr	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	34455 N 27th Dr	open
Dao Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	34455 N 27th Dr	open
Eggstasy Eggstasy	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	2510 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1248	open
El Encanto Dos El Encanto Mexican Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1112 E Carefree Hwy	open
Elevate Coffee Company Elevate Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2530 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Firebirds Wood Fired Grill Firebirds Wood Fired Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2250 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	2005 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service	Burgers · American	2470 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Fractured Prune Doughnuts	Bakery	Bakery	2530 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1271	open
Front Pourch Brewing	Brewery / taproom · Bar		1611 W Whispering Wind Dr	open
Geek Desserts	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	31762 N 24th Dr	open
Greek Pita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Handel’s Ice Cream Dove Valley Handel's Homemade Ice Cream - York, PA	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3050 W Dove Valley Rd	open
Happy Valley Shake Shack	Quick service		2222 W Happy Valley Rd	open
International House of Pancakes IHOP	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Breakfast · American	2103 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		2113 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		2645 W Carefree Hwy	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	2370 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3075 W Dove Valley Rd Ste 400	open
Joey's Of Chicago	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs	1985 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Johnny Rockets	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2510 W Happy Valley Rd #1253	open
Katie K's Cookies and Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1727 W Desperado Way	open
LariBakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	33500 N North Valley Pkwy	open
Limon Urban Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2750 W Dove Valley Rd	open
LL Hawaiian Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific	2501 W Happy Valley Rd #50	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · Breakfast	I-17 & Happy Valley, Walmart	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	2615 West Jomax Rd.	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		2551 W. Sonoran Desert Dr.	open
Mellow Mushroom Mellow Mushroom	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · American	2490 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Mesquite Fresh Street Mex Mesquite Fresh Street Mex	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	1730 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Nekter Juice Bar Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	2730 W Dove Valley Rd Ste 110	open
Norterra Crumbl Cookies	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	2450 W Happy Valley Rd, Ste 1151, Phoenix, Arizona 85085	open
Og Zonka Farms	Dessert	Dessert	1039 E Carefree Hwy	open
Olive Garden Italian Restaurant Olive Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
One Stop Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2501 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 32-1075	open
Osteria Mia	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	2530 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Over Easy Restaurant Over Easy Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2965 W. Dove Valley Rd, Suite #500	open
P.F. Chang's P.F. Chang's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Chinese	2420 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Paciugo Gelato	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2530 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1271	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	2501 W. Happy Valley Road #50-1290 #50-1290	open
Panera Bread Panera Bread	Bakery · Fast casual	Bakery · Sandwiches · Healthy / salads / bowls	2370 West Happy Valley Rd	open
Pasta Love	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual	Italian · Healthy / salads / bowls	1730 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 102	open
Pastries N Chaat	Bakery	Bakery	1985 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Peaks & Valleys Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	711 E Carefree Hwy	open
Peter Piper Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2611 W. Carefree Hwy	open
Pita Jungle Pita Jungle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Healthy / salads / bowls	2530 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1261	open
Plaza Bonita	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	2815 W Carefree Hwy	open
Ray's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Red Robin Gourmet Burgers	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	2501 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 10	open
Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory	Dessert	Dessert	2510 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Salt Tacos y Tequila - Norterra	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2450 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1143	open
Sauce Pizza and Wine Sauce Pizza & Wine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	2470 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Shane's Rib Shack Shane's Rib Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Skunk Creek Flats Saloon And Grub	Bar		27201 N Black Canyon Hwy	open
Smashburger	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2470 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1195	open
Someburros	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2525 W Jomax Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2501 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	26300 N Norterra Pkwy	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2800 W Dove Valley Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1 Norterra Dr	open
State 48 Rock House State 48 Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		2530 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Streets Of New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1985 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Streets of New York Streets of New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian · American	2805 W Carefree Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2330 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 1025	open
Super Suppers	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1611 W Whispering Wind Dr	open
Sweeteez Sweets	Bakery	Bakery	1985 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Tandoori Times	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian · American	2524 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Texas Roadhouse Texas Roadhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · American	2600 W Happy Valley Rd	open
TGI Fridays	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2501 W Happy Valley Rd Ste 14	open
Thai Chili 2go	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	2750 W Dove Valley Rd Ste 180	open
The Bistro – Eat. Drink. Connect.®	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2029 W Whispering Wind Dr	open
Tikka Shack Indian Grub Tikka Shack	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	2510 W Happy Valley Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Quick service		2222 West Happy Valley Road	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	2965 West Dove Valley Road, Suite 200	open
Urban Boba Tea House	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Coffee	2470 W Happy Valley Rd #1183	open
Yogi's Grill Yogis Grill Teriyaki & Roll	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	2450 W Happy Valley Rd #1155	open
Yogurtini Yogurtini	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2510 W Happy Valley Rd #1251	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2000	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2001	1	—	—	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2005	9	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2006	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	7	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	23	21	7	12	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	30	29	11	14	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	41	38	17	16	5	—	NAICS2007
2012	43	38	14	19	5	—	NAICS2012
2013	47	43	15	20	8	—	NAICS2012
2014	46	43	15	20	8	—	NAICS2012
2015	47	44	17	18	9	—	NAICS2012
2016	47	42	16	18	8	—	NAICS2012
2017	52	47	15	25	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	55	49	17	23	9	—	NAICS2017
2019	60	52	16	25	11	—	NAICS2017
2020	59	53	18	24	11	—	NAICS2017
2021	60	53	17	25	11	—	NAICS2017
2022	65	57	22	24	11	—	NAICS2022
2023	69	60	21	25	14	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85085. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85083	4.9 mi	4	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.