BMIE Market 85086

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	43,270 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,682 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	15,882 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±953 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	40,495 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	16,014 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$121,676 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,124 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,330 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±212 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$598,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±20,101 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	61.3 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	58 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85086
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.8 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-4.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-6.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+262.5% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,833.3% DERIVED: 1998 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	56 (range 49–63) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.2 per year, r² 0.04) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	67 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	93 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	37 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85086. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.2 restaurants per year, r² 0.04, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 67 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	93.3	93	40%	+37.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.0	59	35%	+20.6
Market Momentum Score	36.6	37	25%	+9.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	43,270	95	40%	+38.1
Median household income (ACS)	121,676	91	40%	+36.4
Households (ACS)	15,882	94	20%	+18.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-6.5	20	35%	+7.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	13.4	59	25%	+14.7
Population (ACS)	43,270	95	20%	+19.0
Median household income (ACS)	121,676	91	20%	+18.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 37 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-4.9	23	50%	+11.4
10-year restaurant growth	-6.5	20	30%	+6.1
20-year restaurant growth	262.5	96	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (106)

By cuisine

American 22 · Coffee 13 · Pizza 12 · Burgers 10 · Mexican 10 · Sandwiches 10 · Asian 9 · Bakery 8 · Dessert 6 · Japanese 6 · Chinese 5 · Breakfast 4 · Chicken / wings 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Italian 4 · Sushi 4 · BBQ 3 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Vietnamese 2 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · French 1 · Greek 1 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 63 · Quick service 22 · Café 12 · Bar 11 · Coffee shop 9 · Bakery 8 · Dessert 8 · Casual dining 7 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Fast casual 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Amped Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	3434 W Anthem Way	open
Anthem Cars and Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	4250 West Anthem Way	open
Auntie Anne's Auntie Anne's	Bakery · Quick service · Café	Bakery · Coffee	4250 Anthem Way F90	open
Azool Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		3134 W Carefree Hwy	open
Barro's Pizza Barro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	41722 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy #100	open
Baskin-Robbins Baskin-Robbins	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	3655 W Anthem Way Suite C-113	open
Biancas Gelatos	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	4250 W Anthem Way Ste F20	open
By The Bucket - Anthem AZ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings · American	41111 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Cafe Province	Restaurant (service type not stated)	French	39504 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Charleys Cheesesteaks Charleys Cheesesteaks	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · American	4250 W Anthem Way	open
Charleys Philly Steaks Charleys Philly Steaks	Quick service	Sandwiches	4250 West Anthem Way, FC-40	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		34710 N. North Valley Pkwy	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle	Quick service		4115 W Anthem Way	open
Clean Juice Clean Juice	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	39504 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Coffee House Coffee House Company	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3170 W Carefree Hwy	open
Copper State Hot Dogs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hot dogs · American	40132 N Faith Ln	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	4121 W Anthem Way	open
Denny's	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Breakfast · Coffee · American	3160 W Carefree Hwy	open
Desert Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	3134 W Carefree Hwy	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	39506 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Ebisu Sushi & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese	39510 N Daisy Mountain Dr Ste 160	open
Echo Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3134 W Carefree Hwy	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Sandwiches	39508 N Daisy Mountain Drive	open
Famous Wok Famous Wok	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	4250 W Anthem Way	open
Filiberto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3632 W Anthem Way	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	42407 North Vision Way Suite 103	open
First Watch First Watch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	34948 N North Valley Parkway	open
Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers Freddy's Frozen Custard & Steakburgers	Quick service	Burgers · American	39520 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Fresca's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4250 W Anthem Way Ste F70	open
Gio's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4205 W Anthem Way	open
Gold Rush Coffee & Cream	Coffee shop · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Ice cream / frozen desserts	42302 N Vision Way	open
Havana Cigar Bar	Bar		4225 W Fortune Dr	open
Helton Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		35914 N 31st Ave	open
Homeland Brew Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		4225 W Fortune Dr Ste 100	open
Hong Kong 168 Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3170 W Carefree Hwy Ste 1	open
Hong Kong Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3170 W Carefree Hwy #3205	open
Hot Bagels and Deli Hot Bagels & Deli - Carefree &I17	Bakery · Quick service · Specialty food shop	Bakery · Sandwiches	34640 N North Valley Pkwy	open
In-N-Out Burger In-N-Out Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	34850 N. Valley Parkway	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	34710 N. North Valley Pkwy	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Burgers	39526 N Gavilan Peak Pkwy	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches · American	39512 N. Daisy Mountain Drive Suite 172	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Sandwiches	35004 N North Valley Pkwy Ste 100	open
Jordan’s Mini Corner-Anthem	Restaurant (service type not stated)		41117 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
KOBE Hotpot & Ramen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Japanese · Asian	3655 W Anthem Way	open
Koi Sushi Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	4205 W Anthem Way #109	open
L'Entrata	Bar		41111 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Legends Bar & Grill	Bar · Casual dining	American	3655 W Anthem Way # D115	open
Leila's Empanadas	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Latin American (other) · American	SW Corner, 4111 W Innovative Dr Ste 114 Building 2	open
Limelightbbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	2509 W Vía De Pedro Miguel	open
Mama's Hawaiian Bar-B-Cue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Hawaiian / Pacific	3632 W Anthem Way	open
Mango Bliss Dessert Bar	Dessert	Dessert	3434 W Anthem Way #140	open
Mango Bliss Dessert Bar - Anthem	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	3434 W Anthem Way	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3623 W Anthem Way	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · Breakfast	3140 W Carefree Highway	open
Mijo's Mexican Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3668 W Anthem Way Steve B136	open
Mr. Gyros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek · Mediterranean	3655 W Anthem Way	open
Nara Thai Cafe	Café	Thai · Coffee · Asian	3655 W Anthem Way	open
Native New Yorker	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3668 W Anthem Way	open
Ocho Locos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3655 W Anthem Way	open
Papa John's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4205 W Anthem Way	open
Papa Murphy's Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3655 W Anthem Way Ste 123	open
Persimmon Bar & Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2708 W Anthem Club Dr	open
Pho Legend	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	39510 N Daisy Mountain Dr #160	open
Pho Saigon Pearl Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3134 W Carefree Hwy Ste 8	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	34640 N North Vly Pkwy a3 #a3	open
Pt Pho Express - Carefree & I -17	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese	3134 W Carefree Hwy # A6	open
Quik Burrito	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3434 W Anthem Way	open
Ray's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	42211 N 41st Dr	open
Ray's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	703 E Carefree Hwy #109	open
Ray's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3134 W Carefree Hwy #6	open
Rosati's Pizza Rosati's Pizza	Bar	Pizza · Italian	3668 W Anthem Way Ste A128	open
Ruby's Express Ruby's Diner	Casual dining	Burgers · American	4250 W Anthem Way	open
Shanghai Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	3434 W Anthem Way	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	41135 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3640 W Anthem Way	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	39422 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	3130 W Carefree Hwy	open
Streets of New York	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	39508 W Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	4435 W Anthem Way	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3655 West Anthem Way Suite C 105	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	3120 W Carefree Hwy Suite B-9	open
Sweethearts Gourmet Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	3655 W Anthem Way	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	3659 W. Anthem Way	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	34906 N Valley Parkway	open
Taco Del Mar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3668 W Anthem Way	open
The Compound at Ehrich Estates	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		35035 N Central Ave	open
The Crown King Saloon	Bar	Chinese · Burgers	3207 W Languid Ln	open
The Green Room	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Fast casual · Bar	Healthy / salads / bowls	3434 W Anthem Way	open
The Taco Spot The Taco Spot	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	39510 N Daisy Mountain Dr #170	open
Tortas Chano	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	39510 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Trappers Sushi Co. - Anthem	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	39510 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
Tru Burger Co.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	39504 N Daisy Mountain Dr #110	open
Two Brothers Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3655 W Anthem Way suite C-137	open
Villa Fresh Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	4250 W Anthem Way	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	3422 West Anthem Way	open
Wild Vines	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	41111 N Daisy Mountain Dr	open
William's Coffee Co	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	3170 W Carefree Hwy	open
Wingstop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	3655 W Anthem Way Ste B-123	open
Wok King Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4250 W Anthem Way Ste F60	open
Yogurberry	Dessert	Dessert	4250 W Anthem Way	open
Yotis And Sons Investments Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3655 W Anthem Way Ste C137	open
You Got Brewed Coffee & Smoothies	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	4220 W Summit Walk Ct	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	3655 W Anthem Way	open
Ziggi's Coffee Ziggi's Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	42404 N Vision Way	open
Cafe Aroma	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4220 W Summit Walk Ct Ste 1202	closed
Del Taco	Quick service		4115 W Anthem Way	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1998	3	3	—	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	4	4	—	3	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	7	6	1	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2001	8	8	2	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	15	15	5	8	2	—	NAICS1997
2003	16	16	5	9	2	—	NAICS2002
2004	24	23	10	10	3	1	NAICS2002
2005	33	31	13	14	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	40	38	15	18	5	1	NAICS2002
2007	49	48	14	26	7	—	NAICS2002
2008	57	53	21	23	9	1	NAICS2007
2009	55	52	18	25	9	1	NAICS2007
2010	64	60	21	25	14	2	NAICS2007
2011	62	60	23	25	12	—	NAICS2007
2012	55	54	21	25	8	1	NAICS2012
2013	67	62	25	26	11	2	NAICS2012
2014	60	56	25	22	9	2	NAICS2012
2015	60	57	27	20	10	2	NAICS2012
2016	57	53	25	21	7	3	NAICS2012
2017	66	64	27	28	9	—	NAICS2017
2018	63	61	24	27	10	—	NAICS2017
2019	61	60	19	28	13	—	NAICS2017
2020	60	59	20	25	14	—	NAICS2017
2021	59	56	23	21	12	—	NAICS2017
2022	58	54	23	19	12	—	NAICS2022
2023	63	58	21	19	18	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85086. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.