BMIE Market 85131

Pinal County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	18,794 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±622 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	4,838 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±317 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	18,017 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,237 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$56,576 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,237 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$981 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$259,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±22,091 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	306.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	11 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85131
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	0.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+37.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+57.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,000.0% DERIVED: 2008 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	12 (range 9–14) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.76) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	70 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	56 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85131. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.76, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	56.5	56	40%	+22.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	73.0	73	35%	+25.5
Market Momentum Score	86.3	86	25%	+21.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 56 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	18,794	80	40%	+32.1
Median household income (ACS)	56,576	24	40%	+9.6
Households (ACS)	4,838	74	20%	+14.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 73 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	57.1	86	35%	+29.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.9	89	25%	+22.2
Population (ACS)	18,794	80	20%	+16.1
Median household income (ACS)	56,576	24	20%	+4.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	37.5	87	50%	+54.3
10-year restaurant growth	57.1	86	30%	+32.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (35)

By cuisine

American 12 · Mexican 6 · Burgers 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Hot dogs 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Pizza 3 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Indian 2 · Bakery 1 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Coffee 1 · Dessert 1 · Italian 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 24 · Quick service 16 · Casual dining 7 · Bar 4 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 2 · Bakery 1 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's Arby's	Quick service	Sandwiches · American	5000 Sunland Gin Rd	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5000 N Sunland Gin Rd	open
Bargain Palace	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	200 E Frontier St	open
Bent Prop Saloon & Cookery	Casual dining · Bar		4828 N Taylor St	open
Black Bear Diner Black Bear Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	5235 N Sunland Gin Rd	open
Blue Beacon of Casa Grande Blue Beacon Truck Wash	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	5265 N Sunland Gin Rd	open
Burger King	Quick service		900 N Main St	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5310 Sunland Gin Rd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	3090 N Toltec Rd	open
Dairy Queen Subway	Quick service · Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches · Ice cream / frozen desserts	619 S Sunshine Blvd	open
Dunkin' Cinnabon	Coffee shop · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Café	Coffee · Bakery · Dessert	16189 S Sunshine Blvd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		2950 North Toltec Road	open
Eloy Fiesta's Patrias -Corazon De Latino's Unidos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	P.0. Box 774	open
Encore Family Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	310 W Frontier St	open
Flavor of India \| Best Indian Restaurant Eloy \| Best Indian Curry \| Indian Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	3300 N Chesley Rd	open
Godfather's Pizza Express Godfathers Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	5000 Sunland Gin Rd	open
Golden 9 Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4965 N Sunland Gin Rd	open
Hotdogs Alvarado	Food truck · Quick service	Hot dogs	1005 S Sunshine Blvd	open
Hotdogs Alvarado	Food truck · Quick service	Hot dogs	USPS, 620 N Main St	open
Hotdogs Alvarado	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Hot dogs	1005 S Sunshine Blvd	open
Iron Skillet Black Bear Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	5235 North Sunland Gin Road	open
La Michoacana Monarca	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Mexican	919 N Main St	open
La Paloma Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	116 W Frontier St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3160 N Toltec Rd	open
Nico's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	919 N Main St B	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · BBQ	3720 W Tohono Dr Pinal	open
Ranch Hand Brewing	Brewery / taproom		6565 N Toltec Buttes Rd	open
Robson Ranch Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5750 N Robson Blvd	open
Salsa El General	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	514 N Main St	open
Sbarro Sbarro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Burgers · American · Italian	2949 S Toltec Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	5240 S Sunland Gin Rd	open
The Burger Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)		16189 S Sunshine Blvd	open
Tumbleweed Inn	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3802 W Frontier St	open
Viktoria's Nightclub	Bar		300 E Casa Grande-Picacho Hwy	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service		2998 N Toltec Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2008	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	8	2	6	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	7	2	5	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	6	—	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	11	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85131. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.