BMIE Market 85213

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	36,836 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,439 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	13,117 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±645 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	31,797 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	14,592 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$103,969 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,901 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	38.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,730 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$438,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,261 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	9.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	23 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85213
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-4.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+21.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+35.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+155.6% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	24 (range 22–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.3 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	74 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	89 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	42 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85213. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 74 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	88.6	89	40%	+35.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	79.5	79	35%	+27.8
Market Momentum Score	42.2	42	25%	+10.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 89 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	36,836	93	40%	+37.0
Median household income (ACS)	103,969	83	40%	+33.4
Households (ACS)	13,117	91	20%	+18.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 79 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	21.1	64	35%	+22.5
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.2	87	25%	+21.8
Population (ACS)	36,836	93	20%	+18.5
Median household income (ACS)	103,969	83	20%	+16.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 42 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-4.2	23	50%	+11.7
10-year restaurant growth	21.1	64	30%	+19.3
20-year restaurant growth	35.3	56	20%	+11.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (54)

By cuisine

Mexican 13 · Bakery 6 · Coffee 6 · Pizza 5 · American 3 · Chicken / wings 3 · Dessert 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · BBQ 2 · Hawaiian / Pacific 2 · Italian 2 · British / Irish pub food 1 · Burgers 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Noodles / ramen / pho 1 · Seafood 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Quick service 8 · Bakery 6 · Coffee shop 6 · Bar 5 · Café 4 · Dessert 3 · Casual dining 2 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
19th Donut Hole Walmart	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	116 N Lindsay Rd #17	open
Aloha Island Market, Az	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific	454 N Lindsay Rd	open
Artistic Icing Cupcakes	Bakery	Bakery	2650 E University Dr Ste 106	open
Bak & Jo Bakery and Coffee	Bakery · Coffee shop · Café	Bakery · Coffee	2820 E University Dr	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	2708 East University	open
By the Bucket	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Sandwiches	454 N Lindsay Rd	open
Cactus Bar & Grill at Good Life RV Resort	Bar		3403 E Main St	open
Calle Chile New Mexico Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	2860 E McKellips Rd	open
Cant Stop Smokin' Bbq Mesa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	2650 E University Dr	open
Chocolate Wasted	Dessert	Dessert	2233 E Lockwood St	open
Christina's Authentic Mexican Resturant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2706 E University Dr	open
Daruma Ramen and Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Noodles / ramen / pho		open
Filiberto's Mexican Food Filibertos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	3041 E McKellips Rd	open
Firehouse Subs Firehouse Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	2727 E McKellips Rd	open
Foxs Pizza Den	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2706 E University Dr Ste 11	open
Franchise Growth Systems	Restaurant (service type not stated)		705 N Lindsay Rd	open
hasienda de rosas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	3129 E McKellips Rd	open
Il Forno Bello Pizzeria	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		3121 E McKellips Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		2846 E Main St	open
Jalapeño Buck's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · BBQ	3434 N Val Vista Dr	open
KeKe's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	2106 E Knoll Cir	open
Kfc	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	2757 E Main St	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2754 E McKellips Rd	open
Los Favoritos Mexican Food Los Favoritos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2650 E University Dr	open
Lucas Chicken	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Mexican	3129 E McKellips Rd	open
Maskadores Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2706 E University Dr	open
Moki's Hawaiian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Hawaiian / Pacific	2652 E Hale St	open
Mr. Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2706 E University Dr	open
No Glutes About It	Bakery	Bakery	2245 N Winthrop Cir	open
Nutrition Blvd	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	454 N Lindsay Rd	open
Papaya Thai Restaurant Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2706 E University Dr	open
Pho An An	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2706 E University Dr Ste 8	open
Pirates Fish & Chips	Restaurant (service type not stated)	British / Irish pub food · Seafood	441 N Lindsay Rd	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2727 E McKellips Rd #106 #106	open
Pollos La Chuya	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Steakhouse · Chicken / wings	2706 E University Dr	open
Rancho de Tia Rosa	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3129 E McKellips Rd	open
Real Food Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern	2706 E University Dr #10	open
Rosa's Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	3129 E McKellips Rd	open
Samurai Sam's Teriyaki Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3041 E McKellips Rd	open
Sharky's Tacos & Tequila	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2662 E University Dr Ste 102	open
Shroom Room Mesa	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2860 E McKellips Rd	open
Somewhere In Time	Bar		2725 E Northridge St	open
Sonic Drive In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	3033 E Mckellips Road	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	406 N Val Vista Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	2740 E University Dr (Safeway - Mesa #, 1567)	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	441 N Val Vista Dr	open
Starz American Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	2662 E University Dr	open
Sweet Simon	Bakery	Bakery · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	2820 E University Dr #109	open
Swig Swig	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Dessert	2010 E Brown Rd	open
The Soda Shop	Quick service		2010 E Brown Rd	open
Tito's Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2650 E University Dr Ste 102	open
University Dr Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	2750 E University Dr	open
Vito's Pizza and Italian Ristorante Vito's Pizza & Italian Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	1947 N Lindsay Rd	open
Wide Daddys Llc	Other	Sandwiches	2706 E University Dr Ste 10	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	10	9	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	12	11	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	11	10	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	11	11	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	11	4	7	—	—	NAICS1997
1999	15	12	5	7	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	19	16	7	8	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	15	14	6	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	18	18	6	10	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	18	17	7	8	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	20	19	8	9	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	21	19	7	10	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	23	22	11	9	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	16	16	7	9	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	17	17	8	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	22	22	10	11	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	20	20	10	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	20	19	8	10	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	18	18	7	10	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	19	19	5	11	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	19	19	6	11	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	21	21	6	13	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	22	22	5	13	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	23	22	5	12	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	26	24	6	13	5	—	NAICS2017
2019	23	21	5	12	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	24	22	4	14	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	24	21	4	13	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	26	23	4	16	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	26	23	4	15	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85213. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85203	2.1 mi	46	2023
85205	3.2 mi	72	2023
85204	3.8 mi	117	2023
85206	4.5 mi	101	2023
85201	5.0 mi	115	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.