BMIE Market 85215

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,888 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	7,450 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±432 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,963 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	9,141 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$98,831 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4,769 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,958 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±424 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$441,000 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±17,989 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	82.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	58 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85215
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	27.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+20.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+26.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+123.1% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,833.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	62 (range 56–67) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.3 per year, r² 0.69) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	60 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	77 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85215. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.69, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	79.6	80	40%	+31.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59.8	60	35%	+20.9
Market Momentum Score	76.9	77	25%	+19.2

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,888	79	40%	+31.4
Median household income (ACS)	98,831	80	40%	+32.1
Households (ACS)	7,450	80	20%	+16.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 60 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	26.1	68	35%	+23.9
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	34.3	17	25%	+4.1
Population (ACS)	16,888	79	20%	+15.7
Median household income (ACS)	98,831	80	20%	+16.1

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	20.8	78	50%	+39.0
10-year restaurant growth	26.1	68	30%	+20.5
20-year restaurant growth	123.1	87	20%	+17.3

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (121)

By cuisine

American 22 · Coffee 15 · Mexican 11 · Pizza 11 · Breakfast 9 · Bakery 8 · Sandwiches 8 · Italian 7 · Burgers 6 · Chicken / wings 5 · Dessert 5 · Asian 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 3 · Japanese 3 · Steakhouse 3 · Sushi 3 · BBQ 2 · Chinese 2 · Greek 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Mediterranean 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 2 · Middle Eastern 1 · Peruvian 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1 · Thai 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 68 · Quick service 29 · Bar 17 · Café 12 · Casual dining 12 · Coffee shop 10 · Bakery 9 · Dessert 8 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Other 3 · Food truck 2 · Specialty food shop 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Delivery-focused 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
2011 Thai, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2011 N Recker Rd	open
5 R Cha Thai Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai	2011 N Recker Rd	open
Anzio's Landing	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2613 N Thunderbird Cir	open
Apache Wells Country Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	2709 N Higley Rd	open
Arizona Neurorecovery Treatment Innovation Center Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2812 N Norwalk Ste 119	open
B Krazy Enterprises	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6620 E Mckellips Rd Ste 101	open
Barro's Pizza Barro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	6663 E McDowell Rd #105	open
Bellagio Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4545 E McKellips Rd	open
Bistro á la mode	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Breakfast · American	4012 E Palm St	open
Boeing Aramark Cafeteria	Buffet		5000 E McDowell Rd	open
Breadsmith	Bakery	Bakery	2831 N Power Rd	open
Breaking Eggs Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6663 E Mcdowell Rd Ste 1	open
Buffalo Wild Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	4425 E McKellips Rd	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	5859 E McKellips Rd	open
C2 Promotional Marketing, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3654 N Power Rd Ste 162	open
Cafe Mix	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	4405 E Mckellips Rd Ste 106	open
Cafe Rio Cafe Rio Mexican Grill	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	2119 N Power Rd	open
Cafe Roma	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	2011 N Recker Rd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	4515 E Mckellips Rd	open
Chick-fil-A Chick-fil-A	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	6707 E McKellips Rd	open
Chili's Grill & Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6648 E. McKellips Road	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	2849 N Power Rd Ste 101	open
Citron, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3321 N Reseda	open
Cousins Subs	Other	Sandwiches	2015 N Power Rd	open
Cozy Corner Cafe	Casual dining · Café	American · Coffee · Breakfast	5901 E McKellips Rd #102	open
Crave Cookies	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	2733 N Power Rd Ste 105	open
Crumbl - Red Mountain Crumbl Cookies	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	5942 E Longbow Pkwy Ste 103	open
Cups & Cakes	Coffee shop	Coffee	6727 E McDowell Rd	open
D'Vine Bistro & Wine Bar	Bar · Casual dining	American	2837 N Power Rd #101	open
Dairy Queen Grill & Chill Dairy Queen	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	5936 E McKellips Rd	open
Del Taco	Quick service		2645 North Power Road	open
Denny's	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5854 E Longbow Pkwy	open
Desert Peaks Pizza & Grille	Casual dining · Bar	Pizza · American	5943 E McKellips Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	4505 E. Mc Kellips Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	6606 E. Mckellips Rd #101	open
East Valley Physicians Group, Pllc Dba S Outhwest Chiromed	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2044 N Recker Rd	open
Echo 5 Sports Pub	Bar · Casual dining		2855 N Power Rd #101	open
EJ's Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	5609 E McKellips Rd	open
El Auténtico 1010	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Peruvian · Mexican	5609 E McKellips Rd Ste 101	open
Elysian Fields Artisan Bakery & Dainties	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Bakery	6727 E McDowell Rd #104	open
Filiberto's Mexican Food Filibertos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	2737 N Power Rd	open
First Watch First Watch	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	2111 N. Power Road	open
Flights Wine Taproom	Bar		2613 N Thunderbird Cir	open
Golden Spoon Frozen Yogurt	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	2849 N Power Rd	open
Goldwater Brewing Co. Longbow Goldwater Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Bar		5942 E Longbow Pkwy	open
Got Sushi?	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	6744 E Mcdowell Rd Ste 102	open
Gourmet Gelato And Coffee	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	6727 E Mcdowell Rd Ste 105	open
Grandview Steakhouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Steakhouse	6210 E McKellips Rd	open
Handel's Homemade Ice Cream Handel's Homemade Ice Cream	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	2015 North Power Road, Mesa, Arizona 85215	open
Hava Java Mesa	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	2849 N Power Rd	open
Il Forno Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	6606 E McKellips Rd	open
In-N-Out Burger In-N-Out Burger	Quick service	Burgers · American	3156 North Recker Road	open
It's Just Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	6648 E. McKellips Road	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		2719 N Power Rd	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Quick service	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	4401 E McKellips Rd #106	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	2119 N. Power Road Suite 103	open
Jimmy John's	Other	Sandwiches	2831 N Power Rd Ste 101	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	4401 E Mc Kellips Rd Ste. 104	open
K Bar M Restaurants Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2823 N Power Rd	open
Kneaders Bakery and Cafe Kneaders Bakery and Cafe	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Bakery · Coffee	6611 E McDowell Rd	open
Kyoto Bowl	Restaurant (service type not stated)		6606 E McKellips Rd	open
L&j Hanna Sabeeh Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		5901 E Mckellips Rd Ste 102	open
McDonald's	Quick service		4505 E McKellips Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	6748 E McKellips Rd	open
Mesa Grill Co	Casual dining · Bar	Mexican	4545 E McKellips Rd #108	open
Milano's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza · Mediterranean	4545 E McKellips Rd #103	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	3130 N Recker Rd Ste 101	open
Monte Cello’s Fine Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2015 N Power Rd	open
Morning Glory Brunchery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	4545 E McKellips Rd	open
Nando's Mexican Cafe Nando's Mexican Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Coffee	6715 E McDowell Rd	open
Nekter Juice Bar Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	2832 N Power Rd	open
Pacino's Restaurant	Bar	Italian · Pizza	2831 N Power Rd #104	open
Panda Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	4425 E McKellips Rd	open
Panda Express	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	2015 N Power Rd Suite 101 Suite 101	open
Papa John's Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2733 N Power Rd	open
Papa Murphy's \| Take 'N' Bake Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	2920 North Power Road, Suite 103	open
Phoenicia Sedan Service L.l.c	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2733 N Power Rd	open
Pita Jungle Pita Jungle	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Middle Eastern · Greek	5609 E McKellips Rd Ste 110	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza · Chicken / wings	6017 E McKellips Rd	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Raising Cane's Raising Cane's Chicken Fingers	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	2161 North Power Road	open
Red Mountain Bar & Grill	Casual dining · Bar		2015 N Power Rd	open
Red White & Brew	Casual dining · Bar		6740 E McDowell Rd #102	open
Restaurant Concepts, Inc.	Restaurant (service type not stated)		3514 N Power Rd Ste 121	open
Rosati's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3654 N Power Rd	open
Royal Tobacco and Cigar Lounge	Bar		2837 N Power Rd Unit 113	open
Saguaro Lake Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	14011 N Bush Hwy	open
Sasquatcho Taco	Food truck	Mexican	4916 E McKellips Rd	open
Shiprock Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	14011 N Bush Hwy	open
Smashburger Smashburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	2837 N Power Rd	open
Someburros Someburros	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	5910 E Longbow Pkwy	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	2832 N Power Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	5941 East Mc Kellips Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	4409 E McKellips Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	2151 N Power Rd	open
Steak And Stone Steakhouse & Bbq	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	2613 N Thunderbird Cir # 2503	open
Steve's Krazy Sub	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	6620 E McKellips Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	2824 N Power Rd #105	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	4425 E. McKellips Road Suite 102	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	5941 E McKellips Rd	open
Sunnyside Breakfast Lounge	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	2823 N Power Rd	open
Sweet Thangs Bakery And Cafe	Bakery	Bakery	5735 E Mckellips Rd Ste 107	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	2028 North Power Road	open
Taco Del Mar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	4535 E McKellips Rd	open
The Buffalo Spot The Buffalo Spot	Quick service	American · Chicken / wings	2837 N Power Rd #104	open
The Fix Drive Thru Coffee	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	5135 E McKellips Rd	open
The Hub Grill and Bar The Hub Grill and Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	6655 E McDowell Rd	open
The Monastery	Casual dining · Bar		4810 E McKellips Rd	open
Tom's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	5005 E McKellips Rd	open
Twinz Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4405 E Mckellips Rd Ste 106	open
Venezia's Pizzeria Venezia's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	5057 E McKellips Rd	open
Village Inn Restaurants Village Inn Restaurants	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	5961 E McKellips Rd	open
Virginia St Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	5947 E Virginia St	open
Waffle Crush	Food truck		5735 E Mckellips Rd Ste 107	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	5055 E McKellips Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	2019 N. Power Road	open
What's Crackin Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Coffee	6663 E McDowell Rd	open
Wine and Design Mesa	Bar		2920 N Power Rd Ste 104	open
ZENSHI Handcrafted Sushi Zenshi Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	2727 N Power Rd	open
Zona Cantina and Cocina	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	5609 E McKellips Rd Ste 101	open
Zushi Japanese Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	6727 E McDowell Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	3	3	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	9	9	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	10	10	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	12	11	7	3	1	1	NAICS1997
1999	16	15	9	6	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	15	15	9	6	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	19	18	8	10	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	26	24	12	11	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	29	26	11	12	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	31	26	11	13	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	39	33	17	14	2	1	NAICS2002
2006	38	35	14	19	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	43	40	16	20	4	—	NAICS2002
2008	48	46	19	22	5	—	NAICS2007
2009	48	46	20	21	5	—	NAICS2007
2010	47	44	19	19	6	1	NAICS2007
2011	50	46	18	21	7	—	NAICS2007
2012	51	48	21	23	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	51	46	18	24	4	1	NAICS2012
2014	46	41	16	22	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	48	45	17	22	6	—	NAICS2012
2016	51	46	18	24	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	50	47	19	24	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	54	48	19	26	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	57	48	18	23	7	—	NAICS2017
2020	58	50	19	24	7	—	NAICS2017
2021	55	47	16	26	5	—	NAICS2017
2022	67	58	18	30	10	3	NAICS2022
2023	67	58	19	29	10	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85215. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.