BMIE Market 85262

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,329 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±825 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,589 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±396 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,275 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,273 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$177,790 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±24,866 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	61.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,899 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,015 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$1,287,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±188,951 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	155.2 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	7 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85262
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	13.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-22.2% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-53.3% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	-36.4% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+600.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	2 (range 0–5) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.8 per year, r² 0.78) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	59 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	8 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85262. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.78, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	85.3	85	40%	+34.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	58.6	59	35%	+20.5
Market Momentum Score	8.3	8	25%	+2.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,329	76	40%	+30.4
Median household income (ACS)	177,790	98	40%	+39.3
Households (ACS)	6,589	78	20%	+15.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 59 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-53.3	2	35%	+0.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.9	92	25%	+23.0
Population (ACS)	14,329	76	20%	+15.2
Median household income (ACS)	177,790	98	20%	+19.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 8 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-22.2	12	50%	+6.1
10-year restaurant growth	-53.3	2	30%	+0.6
20-year restaurant growth	-36.4	8	20%	+1.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (27)

By cuisine

American 8 · Coffee 3 · Steakhouse 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Dessert 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Indian 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Pizza 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 18 · Bar 9 · Casual dining 5 · Bakery 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Café 1 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
AK/Sherm Poolside Cantina	Bar		10798 E Cetona Cir	open
Apache Steakhouse Desert Mountain	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Steakhouse		open
Biffle's Smoke House BBQ Sauce	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	11946 E Cavedale Dr	open
Buyer's Information Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)		34953 N 99th Way	open
Chiricahua Clubhouse Grill at Desert Mountain Club	Casual dining · Bar	American · Spanish / tapas		open
Cochise-Geronimo Pro. Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service		10333 N Rockaway Hills Dr	open
Constantino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Steakhouse	10550 E Desert Hills Dr	open
Cookie & Crumb	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	38843 N Boulder View Dr	open
Dave's Doghouse	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	37003 N 109th Way	open
Dynamite Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	10320 E Dynamite Blvd	open
Gatsby's - at Troon, N. Scottsdale	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	28190 N Alma School Pkwy	open
Greasewood Flat	Bar		27375 N Alma School Pkwy	open
Jamba Juice Zenshi Sushi	Juice, smoothie, tea · Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	32551 North Scottsdale Rd.	open
Mirabel Club	Bar · Coffee shop	Coffee	10681 E Sundance Trl	open
Outlaw	Restaurant (service type not stated)		41045 N Cave Creek Rd, Tonto National Forest, Scottsdale, AZ 85262	open
Peekaboo Cookies	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	28150 N Alma School Pkwy	open
Pinnacle Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	10428 E Jomax Rd	open
Pinnacle Peak Patio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	10426 E Jomax Rd	open
Proof Canteen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	10600 E Crescent Moon Dr	open
Rare Earth (Coffee & Wine)	Bar		28190 N Alma School Pkwy	open
Rosati's Pizza & Sports Pub	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	10989 E Dynamite Blvd Ste 102	open
Saguaro Blossom	Restaurant (service type not stated)		10600 E Crescent Moon Dr	open
SWAN Sushi Seafood Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	28190 N Alma School Pkwy Ste 209	open
The Pony Express Café	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	28190 N Alma School Pkwy #112	open
Uncle Louie The Restaurant	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Italian	31313 N Scottsdale Rd	open
Vilvas Indian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	10434 E Jomax Rd	open
Yolo's Authentic Mexican	Food truck		29301 N 144th St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	1	1	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	4	4	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	7	7	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	6	3	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2000	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	14	11	6	4	1	1	NAICS1997
2003	13	11	4	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2004	15	13	6	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2005	19	17	10	6	1	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	16	9	5	2	1	NAICS2002
2007	18	18	11	5	2	—	NAICS2002
2008	20	18	10	5	3	—	NAICS2007
2009	16	14	8	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	16	15	9	4	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	14	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	12	12	6	5	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	15	15	7	4	4	—	NAICS2012
2014	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	14	7	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	6	4	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	4	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	9	4	—	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	9	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	10	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	9	5	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	10	8	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	9	7	5	—	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85262. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.