BMIE Market 85546

Graham County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	20,809 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±746 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,903 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±316 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	19,677 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	7,172 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$61,832 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,160 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	35.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$981 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±81 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$199,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,418 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	696.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	32 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85546
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	12.7 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+23.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+18.5% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+60.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+88.2% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	31 (range 26–36) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.40) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	63 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	62 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	72 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85546. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.40, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	61.8	62	40%	+24.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	57.5	57	35%	+20.1
Market Momentum Score	72.4	72	25%	+18.1

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 62 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	20,809	82	40%	+32.8
Median household income (ACS)	61,832	33	40%	+13.2
Households (ACS)	6,903	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	18.5	62	35%	+21.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.4	51	25%	+12.8
Population (ACS)	20,809	82	20%	+16.4
Median household income (ACS)	61,832	33	20%	+6.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	23.1	79	50%	+39.7
10-year restaurant growth	18.5	62	30%	+18.5
20-year restaurant growth	60	71	20%	+14.2

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (56)

By cuisine

American 10 · Mexican 7 · Pizza 5 · Coffee 4 · Dessert 4 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 4 · Sandwiches 4 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Burgers 3 · Chinese 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · BBQ 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Breakfast 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Italian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Quick service 16 · Casual dining 10 · Bar 8 · Dessert 7 · Café 4 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Buffet 1 · Catering 1 · Food truck 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
A Step Back in Time	Casual dining	American	418 W Main St	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	1720 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Branding Iron Steakhouse	Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse · American	2344 N Branding Iron Ln	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	701 E US Highway 70	open
Candy's Ice Cream Company	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	613 W Main St	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	455 S 20 Th Ave	open
Casa Manana	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	502 S 1st Ave	open
China Taste	Buffet	Chinese · Asian	1385 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Chubba	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	611 S 6th Ave	open
Cottage Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1104 S Central Ave	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	807 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Desert Valley Managementllc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1827 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	410 West 5th Street	open
El Charro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	601 W Main St	open
El Coronado Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	409 W Main St	open
Fancy Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	628 S 8th Ave	open
Fold and Fire Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Delivery-focused		909 S 8th Ave	open
Frontier Steak & Spirits	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · BBQ	1206 E U.S. Hwy 70	open
Garrett’s Sweet Shop	Dessert	Dessert · Ice cream / frozen desserts	524 W Main St	open
Good Bean Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Quick service · Specialty food shop · Café	Coffee · Sandwiches	418 W Main St	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		1991 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Jerry's Restaurant Jerry's Diner	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	1612 W Thatcher Blvd	open
JOE’S Ride N Dine	Dessert · Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	3922 US-191	open
Jumbo Chinese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	817 W Thatcher Blvd	open
KFC KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1817 Thatcher Boulevard	open
La Quinta Lounge	Bar		420 E US-70	open
Lee&apos S Classic Dentistry	Restaurant (service type not stated)		813 W Court St S Ste 3	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1547 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Los Jilbertos Restaurant	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	215 E US Highway 70	open
Main Street Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	523 W Main St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	1830 Thatcher Blvd	open
Mechy's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	720 W 5th St	open
Nana's Kitchenette	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck · Catering		628 W Main St	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1305 W Thatcher Blvd Graham	open
Red Oven Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	628 W Main St	open
Retrograde Brew & BBQ	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar	BBQ	615 S 5th Ave	open
Reynolds Family Restaurant And Lounge	Restaurant (service type not stated)		4367 S US Highway 191	open
Salty Heifer Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	912 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Sarah's Bull Pen	Bar		912 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Sodalicious Sodalicious	Dessert	Dessert	1904 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Summer Nights	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		1809 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	1900 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	750 8th Ave Inside Minit Market	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	755 South 20th Ave	open
Super Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	1275 W Thatcher Blvd	open
Taco Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	611 S 6th Ave	open
Taco Taste	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1827 W Thatcher Blvd	open
The Blasius Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1206 E US Highway 70	open
The Lollipop Shop	Dessert		1809 W Thatcher Blvd	open
The Ranch Restaurant & Dirty Cowboy Saloon	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		4369 S US Highway 191	open
The Roost Sports Bar	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		1358 S John Wayne Ln	open
The Rustic Barn Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	724 S 6th Ave	open
The Tiny Bean Coffee Co.	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	115 E U.S. Hwy 70	open
Trailhead Hideaway \| Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		8038 US-191	open
Tuttie's American Club	Bar		503 W Main St	open
Manor House & Rockin' Horse Saloon	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	415 E US Highway 70	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	17	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1995	18	16	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	19	16	—	—	—	3	SIC1987
1997	27	21	—	—	—	6	SIC1987
1998	28	20	13	7	—	7	NAICS1997
1999	26	19	12	7	—	7	NAICS1997
2000	29	22	15	7	—	7	NAICS1997
2001	28	21	14	7	—	6	NAICS1997
2002	29	20	13	6	1	5	NAICS1997
2003	27	20	12	8	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	29	22	13	7	—	2	NAICS2002
2005	30	23	12	9	1	2	NAICS2002
2006	31	24	11	12	—	2	NAICS2002
2007	33	23	10	11	1	2	NAICS2002
2008	34	28	14	12	1	2	NAICS2007
2009	32	26	13	11	1	2	NAICS2007
2010	32	25	13	10	1	2	NAICS2007
2011	34	27	14	12	—	2	NAICS2007
2012	35	27	13	12	1	2	NAICS2012
2013	31	27	13	11	2	2	NAICS2012
2014	26	23	10	10	2	2	NAICS2012
2015	26	23	10	10	2	2	NAICS2012
2016	29	24	11	10	2	4	NAICS2012
2017	31	27	13	10	3	3	NAICS2017
2018	32	26	14	9	—	5	NAICS2017
2019	29	24	12	8	3	4	NAICS2017
2020	30	26	13	10	—	3	NAICS2017
2021	30	25	12	10	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	34	30	14	12	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	36	32	15	12	4	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85546. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
85551	3.0 mi	2	2016

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.