BMIE Market 85614

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	25,381 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,342 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,151 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±637 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,895 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	16,136 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$64,879 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,578 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	71.3 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,354 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±111 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$301,200 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,172 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	131.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	43 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85614
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+34.4% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+53.6% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+104.8% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+126.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	45 (range 39–50) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +1.3 per year, r² 0.77) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	72 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	68 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	86 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85614. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +1.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.77, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 72 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	68.1	68	40%	+27.3
Restaurant Opportunity Score	66.1	66	35%	+23.1
Market Momentum Score	85.5	86	25%	+21.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 68 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	25,381	86	40%	+34.2
Median household income (ACS)	64,879	39	40%	+15.5
Households (ACS)	14,151	92	20%	+18.5

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	53.6	85	35%	+29.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	16.9	46	25%	+11.5
Population (ACS)	25,381	86	20%	+17.1
Median household income (ACS)	64,879	39	20%	+7.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 86 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	34.4	86	50%	+43.1
10-year restaurant growth	53.6	85	30%	+25.5
20-year restaurant growth	104.8	85	20%	+17.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (72)

By cuisine

American 13 · Mexican 12 · Coffee 11 · Pizza 8 · Sandwiches 7 · Burgers 6 · Asian 5 · Latin American (other) 5 · Bakery 3 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 3 · Breakfast 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Japanese 2 · Sushi 2 · BBQ 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chinese 1 · Dessert 1 · European 1 · Filipino 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Seafood 1 · Vietnamese 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 51 · Quick service 23 · Café 9 · Coffee shop 8 · Casual dining 7 · Bar 6 · Bakery 3 · Specialty food shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Dessert 1 · Food truck 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	19220 S I-19	open
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	19220 S Interstate 19	open
Arizona Family Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	80 W Esperanza Blvd	open
Brindis Mediterranean Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · European	180 W Continental Rd #178	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	19110 S I 19 Frontage Rd	open
Canoa Country Market.	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	5375 N I-19 Frontage Rd	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	18700 S Nogales Hwy	open
Cayley Cakes	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	555 N La Canada Dr Ste 131	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	18725 S Nogales Hwy	open
Culver's Culver's	Quick service	Burgers · American	18810 S Nogales Hwy	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Quick service · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	1051 W Beta St	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	1060 W Beta St 180 # 180	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	18800 S Nogales Hwy	open
Dwight's Of Green Valley Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1975 N La Canoa	open
Eegee's eegee's	Quick service	Mexican	18731 S Nogales Hwy	open
El Herradero Carniceria Cocina Y Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	18745 S I 19 Frontage Rd A121	open
El Rodeo Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	99 W Esperanza Blvd	open
Five Loaves Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	221 W Duval Rd	open
Frausto's Street Tacos	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1910 N La Canada Dr	open
Garage Sports Bar	Bar · Casual dining		19221 S Alpha Ave	open
Ginger's Auto Title Service	Restaurant (service type not stated)		18745 S I 19 Frontage Rd Ste A117	open
Goyitas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Latin American (other)	100 W Duval Mine Rd #110	open
Greg and Amy's Twist and Shout 50's Diner	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Burgers · BBQ · American	720 W Calle Arroyo Sur Ste 100	open
Grill On the Green	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	5800 S Camino Del Sol	open
Island Mixture	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Filipino · Asian	903 W Placita El Cauce Rico	open
JerryBobs Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Burgers	1325 W Duval Mine Rd	open
JerryBobs Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1325 W Duval Mine Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	18690 S. Nogales Hwy. Suite 124	open
KFC	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	280 W Continental Vista Pl	open
Lavender Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)		77 E Paseo de Golf	open
Little Caesars Pizza Little Caesars	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	18745 S I-19 Frontage Rd	open
Little Texas	Restaurant (service type not stated)		2585 N Abrego Dr	open
Logo Inc. Dba El Patio Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)		100 W Duval Mine Rd Ste 180	open
Madera Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		512 E Whitehouse Canyon Rd	open
Mama's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Breakfast	180 W Continental Rd	open
Manuel's Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	121 W Duval Rd	open
Mario Mcgee's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	101 S La Canada Dr Ste 19	open
Martis Bistro	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	101 South La Cañada Drive Ste 66	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	170 W Continental Rd	open
MOD Pizza MOD Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	18767 S Nogales Hwy #105	open
Moqah Coffee and Beyond GV	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee · Breakfast	101 South La Cañada Drive	open
Mountain View Cafe and Bakery	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	277 W Duval Rd	open
Nogales Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	18800 S Nogales Hwy	open
Old Chicago Deli	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	175 S La Canada Dr #151	open
Panda House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	18745 South Frontage Road	open
Papa Johns Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	1325 w duval mine rd	open
Papa Murphy's Papa Murphy's - Jefferson City	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Pizza	1295 West Duval Mine Road	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	18850 S Nogales Hwy Pima	open
Pizza Takeout & Delivery Papa Murphy's	Quick service			open
Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen	Quick service	Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern	18739 South Nogales	open
Posada Java	Coffee shop	Coffee	665 S Park Centre Ave	open
Pulgarcitos Mexican Food (Food Truck)	Food truck	Mexican	171 W Continental Rd	open
Ragazzi Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	101 S La Canada Dr	open
Rigoberto's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	18690 S Nogales Hwy Suite 106	open
Saigon Flavor	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Vietnamese · Asian	18745 S I-19 Frontage Rd	open
Shell Shell	Restaurant (service type not stated)		1051 W Beta St	open
Sonoran Grove	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	3233 S Abrego Dr	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee	260 W Continental Vista Pl	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	1301 W Duval Mine Rd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	18719 S Nogales Hwy	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	18745 S I-19 Frontage Rd, Suite #A-107	open
Sushi Lin Japanese Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	1295 W Duval Mine Rd Ste 151	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	80 W Duval Mine Rd	open
TACO GIRO - Green Valley & FORE GOLF Taco Giro México	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Seafood	77 E Paseo De Golf	open
The 19th Hole Bar and Grille	Bar · Casual dining	American	111 S La Canada Dr	open
The Grill at Quail Creek	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	1490 N Quail Range Loop	open
The Meltdown	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Sandwiches · Mexican	18875 S I-19 Frontage Rd.	open
The Olive Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Greek	514 E Whitehouse Canyon Rd	open
Two Girls Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	140 W Duval Mine Rd 108	open
VAPE ETC	Café	Coffee	175 S LaCanada Drv STE 121	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	18680 S Nogales Hwy	open
Dominick's Green Valley	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian	77 E Paseo de Golf	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	20	19	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	22	22	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	25	25	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	25	25	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	25	24	14	7	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	25	23	15	5	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	29	27	18	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2001	27	25	15	7	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	22	20	13	6	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	25	21	12	7	2	1	NAICS2002
2004	27	24	14	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2005	30	26	17	7	2	2	NAICS2002
2006	30	25	16	7	2	2	NAICS2002
2007	31	26	16	8	2	1	NAICS2002
2008	35	32	22	9	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	30	29	20	9	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	33	32	21	11	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	32	30	18	12	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	37	35	22	13	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	30	28	17	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2014	30	27	17	10	—	—	NAICS2012
2015	33	30	19	11	—	—	NAICS2012
2016	30	28	15	13	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	30	29	15	14	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	33	32	17	15	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	35	34	17	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	34	33	15	17	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	33	32	15	16	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	41	40	17	22	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	44	43	18	23	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85614. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.