BMIE Market 85629

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	31,668 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,428 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,909 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±483 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	23,568 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,832 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$109,253 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±6,153 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,806 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±144 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$335,600 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±11,628 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	236.5 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	13 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85629
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-13.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+85.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+225.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+333.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 12–20) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.4 per year, r² 0.29) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	80 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	88 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	54 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85629. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.4 restaurants per year, r² 0.29, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 80 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	87.5	88	40%	+35.0
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90.2	90	35%	+31.6
Market Momentum Score	54.0	54	25%	+13.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 88 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	31,668	90	40%	+36.0
Median household income (ACS)	109,253	86	40%	+34.5
Households (ACS)	9,909	85	20%	+17.1

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	85.7	89	35%	+31.3
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.1	95	25%	+23.6
Population (ACS)	31,668	90	20%	+18.0
Median household income (ACS)	109,253	86	20%	+17.2

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 54 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-13.3	16	50%	+8.2
10-year restaurant growth	85.7	89	30%	+26.9
20-year restaurant growth	225	95	20%	+19.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (28)

By cuisine

Mexican 8 · American 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Asian 2 · Bakery 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Chinese 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 14 · Dessert 6 · Food truck 6 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 3 · Coffee shop 3 · Bar 2 · Café 2 · Casual dining 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Buffet 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Arby's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		700 W Sahuarita Rd	open
Asian Sky Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian	15980 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
Del Webb Sahuarita	Food truck	Mexican	504 W Calle Sedillo	open
Desert Diamond Buffet Pima Mine Desert Diamond Casino Tucson & Sahuarita	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Buffet	American	1100 W Pima Mine Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Juice, smoothie, tea · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Juice / smoothies · Coffee	15980 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
El Checo Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	1625 E Sahuarita Rd	open
El Patio	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · Mexican	100 W Duval Mine Rd	open
El Patio Mexican Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	100 W Duval Mine Rd	open
Evas Apples	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	915 W Calle Iribu	open
Ice Shack	Dessert · Food truck		70 E Sahuarita Rd	open
J.R.'s World Famous Coffee House	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	15281 S Via Lago del Encanto	open
Jungle Fruit Raspados	Dessert · Food truck		15920 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd Suite 150	open
Kababeque Indian Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	15990 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
La Azadura Mexican Food	Food truck	Mexican	16087 S Wilmot Rd	open
Little Texas LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American · Mexican	14455 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd N	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	775 West Via Rancho Sahuarita Rd	open
National Eats	Food truck		71 W Sahuarita Rd	open
Panda Express Panda Express México	Quick service	Chinese · Asian	750 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
Pub 1922	Bar · Casual dining		15920 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
Real Fruit Raspados	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	15466 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
Sahuarita BBQ & Grill	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)		16260 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
Sahuarita Titos Pizza& Italian Eatery	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	15980 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	15950 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	15980 S Rancho Sahuarita Suite 104/Retail Pad 3	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	735 W. Sahuarita Road	open
Tania's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	15980 S Rancho Sahuarita Blvd	open
The Cookie Jar	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert		open
Uno Mas Saloon	Bar		16750 S Country Club Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	4	3	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	3	2	2	—	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	4	3	3	—	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	3	3	—	—	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	4	4	1	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	4	3	1	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	6	4	2	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	7	6	2	3	1	—	NAICS2002
2007	5	4	2	1	1	—	NAICS2002
2008	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	5	5	4	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	7	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	9	6	4	2	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	10	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	11	9	4	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	11	4	5	2	—	NAICS2012
2016	15	14	6	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	15	14	5	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	16	15	4	8	3	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	13	3	7	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	12	11	3	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	13	12	—	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	15	13	—	10	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	14	13	—	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85629. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.