BMIE Market 85641

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	34,752 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,281 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	11,608 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±653 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	21,753 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	8,308 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$131,164 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±9,571 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	39.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,110 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±256 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$415,100 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,754 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	343.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85641
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	3.2 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+40.0% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+250.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+600.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 15–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.80) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	93 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	90 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85641. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.80, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.6	92	40%	+36.6
Restaurant Opportunity Score	92.9	93	35%	+32.5
Market Momentum Score	90.4	90	25%	+22.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	34,752	92	40%	+36.6
Median household income (ACS)	131,164	93	40%	+37.3
Households (ACS)	11,608	88	20%	+17.7

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 93 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.0	95	25%	+23.7
Population (ACS)	34,752	92	20%	+18.3
Median household income (ACS)	131,164	93	20%	+18.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	40	87	50%	+43.7
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	250	95	20%	+19.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (30)

By cuisine

American 7 · Coffee 5 · Mexican 5 · Pizza 4 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Bakery 2 · BBQ 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Burgers 1 · Japanese 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 17 · Bar 7 · Casual dining 5 · Coffee shop 5 · Café 4 · Dessert 4 · Food truck 3 · Quick service 3 · Bakery 2 · Other 2 · Winery / distillery / taproom 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Argenziano's	Bar	Italian · Pizza	16251 S Houghton Rd	open
Arizona Pizza Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13190 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
Bake A Difference Cookie Shop	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	13109 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
Blackhawk BBQ	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee · BBQ · American	16461 S Houghton Rd	open
Caffeine Dealer	Coffee shop · Food truck	Coffee		open
Carportcity Willcox & vail AZ	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar			open
Charquitas Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Mexican	16335 S Houghton Rd	open
Charron Vineyards	Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		18585 S Sonoita Hwy	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · American	13160 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
El Giro Food Truck	Food truck		13542 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
Fito's Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	13303 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
Flavor Fuzion	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	13105 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
Flying Leap Vineyards, Inc.	Winery / distillery / taproom		16500 S Creosote View Ln	open
Haury's BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	13699 E Garigans Gulch	open
Hot Stuff Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	13142 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
Hungry's Subs & Salads	Other	Sandwiches	13142 E Colossal Cave Rd	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	13370 E Mary Ann Cleveland Way, Ste 114	open
Mayhem Cupcakes	Dessert · Bakery	Dessert · Bakery	525 W Charles L McKay St	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	13350 E Mary Ann Cleveland Way	open
Montgomery's Grill & Saloon	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	13190 E Colossal Cave Rd #190	open
OT’s Bar and Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		E Whispering Ocotillo Pl, Vail, AZ 85641, United States	open
Picus Coffee Roasters	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	440 W R G Lee Pl	open
Roadrunner Market Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	16121 S Houghton Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop · Café	Japanese · Coffee · Sushi · Asian	13380 E Mary Ann Cleveland Way	open
Subway	Other	Sandwiches	13370 E Mary Ann Cleveland Way Ste 126	open
Taco Bell	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13440 E Mary Ann Cleveland Way	open
Taco Giro Restaurant Mexican and Seafood Taco Giro México	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	13160 E Colossal Cave Rd #100	open
The Rattler At Del Lago	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar · Casual dining	American	14155 E Via Rancho del Lago	open
Toro Bravo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13005 E Benson Hwy	open
Vail Coffee Stop	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	13105 E Colossal Cave Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	2	2	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	5	5	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	6	6	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	5	4	1	2	1	—	NAICS1997
1999	6	5	2	2	1	—	NAICS1997
2000	5	4	1	1	2	—	NAICS1997
2001	3	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2002	4	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS1997
2003	6	4	3	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2004	6	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	8	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2002
2007	10	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2002
2008	13	11	5	3	3	1	NAICS2007
2009	11	9	4	3	2	1	NAICS2007
2010	9	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2011	9	7	2	4	1	1	NAICS2007
2012	8	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	9	7	3	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	10	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	12	10	4	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	11	10	3	4	3	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	3	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	15	5	4	6	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	13	5	3	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	15	14	5	3	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85641. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.