BMIE Market 85653

Pima County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	23,574 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,814 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	8,017 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±505 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	15,083 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,863 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$86,154 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±5,279 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	34.7 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,025 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±371 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$333,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±13,975 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	344.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	14 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85653
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+100.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+55.6% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 14–18) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.87) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	78 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	87 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85653. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.87, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	77.7	78	40%	+31.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	85.0	85	35%	+29.8
Market Momentum Score	87.4	87	25%	+21.9

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 78 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	23,574	84	40%	+33.7
Median household income (ACS)	86,154	69	40%	+27.7
Households (ACS)	8,017	82	20%	+16.3

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	35%	+32.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	5.9	88	25%	+22.1
Population (ACS)	23,574	84	20%	+16.9
Median household income (ACS)	86,154	69	20%	+13.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 87 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	55.6	92	50%	+46.0
10-year restaurant growth	100	92	30%	+27.6
20-year restaurant growth	55.6	69	20%	+13.8

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (37)

By cuisine

Coffee 12 · American 7 · Mexican 7 · Bakery 3 · Breakfast 3 · Burgers 2 · Dessert 2 · Juice / smoothies 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Hot dogs 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Pizza 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 13 · Quick service 10 · Café 9 · Coffee shop 9 · Bar 5 · Bakery 3 · Casual dining 3 · Dessert 3 · Food truck 2 · Juice, smoothie, tea 2 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Al Gusto Coffee Company	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	11807 W Grier Rd	open
Baskin-Robbins™ Baskin-Robbins	Dessert · Bar	Dessert	13952 North Sandario Road	open
Bisbee Breakfast Club Bisbee Breakfast Club	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast · American	13864 N Sandario Rd	open
Black Rock Coffee Bar Black Rock Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	11370 N Tangerine Farms Rd	open
Camacho Hotdogs & Mexican Food	Quick service	Mexican · Hot dogs		open
Cattlemans Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	14901 W Kirby Hughes Rd	open
Circle S Saloon	Casual dining · Bar	American	16021 W El Tiro Rd	open
Dairy Queen Dairy Queen	Quick service		13828 N Sandario Rd	open
Domino's Pizza Domino's	Quick service		11320 West Tangerine Road Unit 105	open
Dunkin'	Coffee shop	Coffee	13952 N Sandario Rd	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	13956 N Sandario Rd	open
El Bebos Street Tacos Tucson	Food truck		11807 W Grier Rd	open
El Campeon Tacos & More	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	16560 W Avra Valley Rd	open
Flightline Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	24641 E Pinal Air Park Rd	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		13925 N Sandario Rd	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Other	Sandwiches	11320 N Tangerine Farms Rd	open
La Tumbleweed Lounge	Bar		13915 N Sandario Rd	open
Luna Cafe	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · American	14075 W Kirby Hughes Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	13934 N Sandario Rd	open
Mona's Frybread	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	Bakery	11750 W Camino Pinos	open
Nico's Mexican Food Nico's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	11855 W Trico Marana Rd	open
Panda Express	Quick service		13960 N Sandario Rd	open
Peachwave of Marana	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	11320 N Tangerine Farms Rd	open
Plaza's Sonora Mexican Food	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	13909 N Sandario Rd	open
R and R Pizza Express	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Pizza · American	13905 N Sandario Rd	open
Relajo Cafe	Coffee shop	Coffee	10253 N Crooked Peak Trl	open
Sandario Dutch Bros. Coffee	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	13956 N Sandario Rd.	open
Six Chicks	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	15999 W Silverbell Rd	open
Sky Rider Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American		open
Sombrero Peak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex		open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	13892 N Sandario Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	11350 W Tangerine Rd.	open
Starbucks	Coffee shop	Coffee	11860 N Tangelo Park Pl	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	13924 N Sandario Rd	open
Taqueria Plaza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	13526 N Sandario Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Quick service		11370 West Tangerine Road	open
Water Hole	Bar		16540 W Avra Valley Rd	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	8	7	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1996	7	5	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1997	8	6	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	7	3	2	1	—	3	NAICS1997
1999	8	5	2	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2000	10	7	2	4	1	3	NAICS1997
2001	9	6	3	2	1	3	NAICS1997
2002	11	8	4	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2003	13	9	4	5	—	2	NAICS2002
2004	12	7	3	4	—	3	NAICS2002
2005	13	8	3	5	—	3	NAICS2002
2006	17	11	4	7	—	3	NAICS2002
2007	14	9	6	3	—	2	NAICS2002
2008	14	11	6	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2009	13	10	4	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2010	13	10	4	5	—	1	NAICS2007
2011	12	9	4	4	—	1	NAICS2007
2012	12	8	3	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2013	9	7	3	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2014	8	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2015	9	6	2	4	—	1	NAICS2012
2016	9	7	2	5	—	1	NAICS2012
2017	10	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	10	9	3	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	11	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	12	10	4	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	14	12	5	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	17	14	5	8	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85653. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.