BMIE Market 85658

Pinal County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	16,051 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,268 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	6,762 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±527 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	7,790 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,197 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$123,415 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,580 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	53.0 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±4 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,931 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±175 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$478,400 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±25,030 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	195.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	4 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85658
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.6 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	-55.6% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-20.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+100.0% DERIVED: 2008 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	5 (range 1–9) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.1 per year, r² 0.01) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	57 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	83 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	6 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85658. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.1 restaurants per year, r² 0.01, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 57 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	83.4	83	40%	+33.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	63.2	63	35%	+22.1
Market Momentum Score	6.0	6	25%	+1.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 83 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	16,051	78	40%	+31.1
Median household income (ACS)	123,415	91	40%	+36.6
Households (ACS)	6,762	79	20%	+15.8

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 63 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	35%	+4.8
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.5	98	25%	+24.6
Population (ACS)	16,051	78	20%	+15.5
Median household income (ACS)	123,415	91	20%	+18.3

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 6 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	-55.6	1	50%	+0.8
10-year restaurant growth	-20	14	30%	+5.1

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (20)

By cuisine

Burgers 2 · Coffee 2 · Dessert 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Pizza 2 · Steakhouse 2 · American 1 · Asian 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Indian 1 · Italian 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Sandwiches 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 12 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 3 · Quick service 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Dessert 2 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Café 1 · Food truck 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Bianchi's Italian	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	3620 W Tangerine Rd 3620	open
Cayton's Burger Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	Latin American (other) · Burgers	16501 W Boulder Bridge Pass	open
Dairy Queen (Treat) Dairy Queen	Dessert · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12050 N Thornydale Rd	open
Dove M Chinese Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	12090 N Thornydale Rd #112	open
Dove Mountain Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar		12130 N Dove Mountain Blvd	open
Dove Mountain Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12130 N Dove Mountain Blvd	open
Freaky Tiki Lounge	Bar			open
Heat Ii, Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12130 N Dove Mountain Blvd Ste 194	open
McClintock's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	3755 W Conrads Way	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	3640 W Tangerine Rd	open
My Taquito	Food truck		9171 W Tangerine Rd	open
Savaya Coffee Market	Coffee shop	Coffee	12120 N Dove Mountain Blvd	open
Scrumdiddly Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	12120 N Dove Mountain Blvd	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	12100 N Thornydale Rd	open
Steak Out Restaurant and Saloon The	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Steakhouse	3640 W Tangerine Rd	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	12040 N Thornydale Rd Ste 100	open
The Highlands Bar & Grille	Casual dining · Bar		4949 W Heritage Club Blvd	open
Tucson Wings	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · Chicken / wings · American	12130 N Dove Mountain Blvd Ste 104	open
Tunnel of Love	Bar			open
Vero Amore	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	12130 N Dove Mountain Blvd #104	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2008	2	2	1	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	2	—	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	2	2	2	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2011	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	5	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2012
2013	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	8	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	9	9	4	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	8	8	3	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	9	9	3	3	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	9	7	—	3	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	6	5	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	5	4	—	3	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85658. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.